Decision 2019: Louisiana Governor’s Race Poll (October 7 edition)

Louisiana is a Southern state that remained faithful to the Democratic Party longer than any other state in the region except possibly Arkansas. However, there has been an unmistakable and steady movement over the last decade to the Republicans, to the point that now there are Republican majorities nearly across the board (in other words, Republican majorities in both houses of the Legislature, nearly all statewide offices are held by Republicans, the Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education). Even in the 2018 Democratic landslide, Louisiana remained staunchly Republican: the partisan vote in Congressional races (all six districts were contested) was 57-38% Republican.

There is a notable exception to the increasing Republican dominance: Democrats recaptured the Governorship in 2015 due to a combination of two things: (1) Republican infighting in the primary prevented any kind of coalescing of the Republican vote in the runoff, and (2) a well run campaign from Democrat John Bel Edwards that proactively inoculated itself against attempts to portray him as a liberal by noting his conservative stances on abortion and gun rights, and by emphasizing his military background.

Now that Governor Edwards is running for re-election against two major Republican candidates (Congressman Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone), will partisan voting patterns reassert themselves and doom his re-election, or does he still have some affirmative strength despite going through numerous legislative special sessions to get a budget passed ?

This the second poll where the Louisiana Association of Health Plans (LAHP) engaged JMC to poll the Louisiana Governor’s race, and these are the takeaways from the poll (which can be found here):

  1. Partisans are coming home, which benefits both Governor Edwards (among blacks), and the the two major Republican candidates (among Republican voters);
  2. Governor Edwards continues to hold his own electorally among white Democrats while picking up support among white Independents;
  3. The race hasn’t changed much since the last LAHP commissioned poll (which can be found here):
  4. Governor Edwards/the Democrats need to be concerned about the weak Democratic turnout among early voters.