2010 Midterm results: Part 6(B) – 2012 Presidential Race
In our prior posting about the House races, we briefly analyzed the 2012 Presidential race through the lens of the electoral behavior of each state during midterm elections. We noted that “….At a minimum, the states which voted for McCain in 2008 are very unlikely to switch to Obama in 2012. States in the interior of the country (particularly those in the Midwest) which voted for Obama in 2008 are very shaky right now for the President. However, the fact that the GOP landslide was barely perceptible in the West Coast suggests that the President can still count on California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii, and he has an even shot at keeping Colorado and Nevada in his corner as well. On the Atlantic Coast, Obama can probably count on holding the New England states, except for New Hampshire and (possibly) Maine. He can also count on New York, Delaware, and Maryland, although Pennsylvania and New Jersey are question marks at this point…”
In this posting, we would like to graphically display what we said by showing both the 2008 electoral map and the 2012 projected electoral map. In 2008, Obama won an Electoral College landslide of 365-173 (270 are needed to win). Our current projections show that at this point in time, a generic Republican would get 276 electoral votes, President Obama would get 162, and 100 electoral votes would be undecided. Having said this, we would like to make a few points: (1) the projections are based on the 2010 Census and estimates of how many additional/fewer seats each state will get, (2) a lot can happen between now and 2012 with regards to the economy, foreign policy, and the interrelationships between President Obama and both houses of Congress, (3) a lot depends on the Republican nominee ultimately chosen.