Right now, 39 states have decided their party’s nominees for federal and statewide offices (Oklahoma’s runoff is on August 26, and there are three more primary dates before the November elections). Given that many of these November races are already underway, this is a good time to bring back the scorecard as a way of objectively assessing […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2014: Forecasting the November 2014 midterm election results
Will the 2014 midterm elections be a Republican blowout year, a mildly Republican year, or a year where Democrats “break even”? That is the central question of this election cycle, and you will get substantially different answers, depending on which political observers you talk to.
Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP runoff postmortem
Background (UPDATED 6/25 AM) With all but two precincts in Hinds County reporting, Senator Thad Cochran has improbably come back from what was to be a near certain defeat. How did he do so? Quite simply, Senator Cochran expanded the primary electorate by getting Democrats to vote in the Republican runoff – runoff turnout was 18% […]
Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP Runoff (JMCEL’s election night guide)
Background For the past three election cycles (2010, 2012, and 2014), Republican primaries/runoffs have an element of drama to them, as an ongoing tug of war has developed between those allied with “the Establishment” and those who are more sympathetic to party activists and are more TEA Party friendly.
Decision 2014 – Testing the TEA Party in North Carolina and Ohio
JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 44-52% approve/disapprove (was 43-52% approve/disapprove); Generic Ballot (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 44-43% Republican/Democrat (was 41-41% Democrat/Republican); “Obamacare” support (5/7 Real Clear Politics average): 41-52% support/oppose (was 39-54% support/oppose); Congressional filing has closed in 35 states that have 366 House and 26 Senate races; Upcoming […]
Decision 2014: Handicapping the US Senate races
BACKGROUND In general, midterm elections are a good barometer of what the public thinks of the party in power. What makes this midterm election interesting is that the US Senate is up for grabs – Democrats currently control that chamber 55-45.
Decision 2014 (Florida upset, and unions in the Illinois Republican primary)
JMCEL’s Scorecard Obama job approval (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 43-52% approve/disapprove (3/5 average 43-53%); Generic Ballot (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 41-41% Democrat/Republican (3/5 average 42-42%); “Obamacare” support (3/20 Real Clear Politics average): 39-54% support/oppose (3/5 average 38-52%); Congressional filing has closed in 22 (or 10 more) states (California, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Montana, […]
Decision 2014: Louisiana Senate Poll/”Polling 101″
Earlier today, Public Policy Polling (also known as PPP) released a poll in the Louisiana Senate race that showed three term incumbent Mary Landrieu clinging to a one point lead over Representative Bill Cassidy (R-Baton Rouge). In its write up, PPP noted that this one point lead was a significant tightening of the race since […]
Decision 2014 (a February 6 snapshot)
JMCEL’s Scorecard Congressional filing has closed in six states (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia) that have 88 House and four Senate races; (UPDATED 2/11 AM) Upcoming filing deadlines: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania; Unopposed House members: 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans (out of 88 districts) House […]
Upset in the 5th congressional district – what happened ?
There was a congressional runoff tonight in the 5th Congressional district in northeast Louisiana/the Florida Parishes, and in a two Republican race, businessman Vance McAllister was elected in a 60-40% landslide. In analyzing this race, the following three points need to be made: