As we inch closer to Election Day (and, in the case of Louisiana, the “kickoff” of early voting in 12 days), there was minimal movement this past week; what movement there was happened in the governor’s races, where there was a perceptible drift towards Republicans in several statehouses. Scorecard Criteria Given the massive volume of polling data, […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of October 2
As we inch closer to Election Day (and, in the case of Louisiana, the “kickoff” of early voting in 19 days), we see mixed messages, as several governor’s races have tightened on the GOP side, while the GOP has seen continued movement in the US Senate races.
Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of September 26
Even though we are in the middle of election season, early voting has already begun in several states, and the GOP remains in decent shape with regards to the November races.
Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of September 19
We are now in the midst of election season, and despite the pundits’ musings (as will be explained later), the GOP is actually in decent shape at this point in the cycle. Scorecard Criteria Given the massive volume of polling data, plus the fact that pollsters have varying levels of accuracy, we gather data on […]
Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of September 7
Now that Labor Day has passed, we are now in the midst of political season (although technically there is one more “primary date” on Tuesday).
Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of August 31
Primary season is coming to a close – 44 states have now decided their party’s nominees for federal and statewide offices. Since Labor Day traditionally is the time that voters begin to pay attention to political campaigns, this is a good time to revise the scorecard.
Decision 2014 – JMCEL scorecard as of August 16
Right now, 39 states have decided their party’s nominees for federal and statewide offices (Oklahoma’s runoff is on August 26, and there are three more primary dates before the November elections). Given that many of these November races are already underway, this is a good time to bring back the scorecard as a way of objectively assessing […]
Decision 2014: Forecasting the November 2014 midterm election results
Will the 2014 midterm elections be a Republican blowout year, a mildly Republican year, or a year where Democrats “break even”? That is the central question of this election cycle, and you will get substantially different answers, depending on which political observers you talk to.
Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP runoff postmortem
Background (UPDATED 6/25 AM) With all but two precincts in Hinds County reporting, Senator Thad Cochran has improbably come back from what was to be a near certain defeat. How did he do so? Quite simply, Senator Cochran expanded the primary electorate by getting Democrats to vote in the Republican runoff – runoff turnout was 18% […]
Decision 2014: Mississippi US Senate GOP Runoff (JMCEL’s election night guide)
Background For the past three election cycles (2010, 2012, and 2014), Republican primaries/runoffs have an element of drama to them, as an ongoing tug of war has developed between those allied with “the Establishment” and those who are more sympathetic to party activists and are more TEA Party friendly.