Tennessee is a Southern state whose partisan divisions were once so predictable that ordinary citizens could recite them by heart (East Tennessee was Republican since the Civil War, Middle Tennessee was “Andrew Jackson Democratic”, and Western Tennessee was an extension of the Deep South (and, therefore, formerly Democratic)). Suburbanization around Nashville, combined with a general […]
Archive | Louisiana
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2018: Is a Democratic wave forming (or dissipating)?
Politically, the 2018 election season is in “half time” right now: as of June 26, 30 states have held their primaries, and primary season doesn’t resume until the Tennessee primary on August 2 (although there are party runoffs in Alabama and Georgia over the next two weeks). There has recently been talk about the Democratic […]
Decision 2018: (Special Election) Secretary of State’s race poll
A special election is being called this fall for the Louisiana Secretary of State, as Tom Schedler (who held the office ever since Jay Dardenne was elected Lt Governor in 2010) recently resigned that position in the wake of allegations that he had sexually harassed his secretary. This race will be on the November ballot […]
2017 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting
Earlier today, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2017 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. This analysis will focus on a practical application of those revised population estimates: the impact on each of Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with any redistricting […]
2017 Louisiana Census Estimates By Parish
While the US Census (which was last taken on April 1, 2010) is formally conducted every 10 years, the Census Bureau periodically posts population estimates for each county/parish. Earlier today, July 1, 2017 population estimates were released for each of Louisiana’s 64 parishes. What do these population estimates tell us ? For decades, Louisiana’s rate […]
Decision 2018: (Special Election) Jefferson Parish Sheriff/ Constable Poll
The late John Maginnis once noted in The Last Hayride that “there was a time in this state when only two political offices really counted: governor and sheriff. Just about everyone else derived power from them or stayed out of the way.” Accordingly, the sheriff of Jefferson Parish (the second largest parish in Louisiana, according […]
Louisiana voter registration trends/are Independents on the rise?
JMC Analytics and Polling periodically analyzes voter registration data updated on a monthly basis by the Secretary of State as a means of staying abreast of demographic/population trends in Louisiana. According to the most recent (January 1, 2018) statistical report, statewide voter registration (both active and inactive voters) was 2.98 million, a number that has […]
Demographic analysis of the 2016 flood in East Baton Rouge Parish – 17 months later
In August 2016, much of south Louisiana faced massive flooding. In its aftermath, JMC analyzed changes in voter registration both statewide and in East Baton Rouge Parish (voter registration counts were used as a proxy for population change, since recent Census estimates are not yet available) to assess whether the flood’s demographic impact was as […]
Decision 2017: A (runoff) post mortem
The 2017 election cycle in Louisiana has concluded with last night’s runoffs, and Republican former state representative John Schroder is now State Treasurer. However, his 56-44% victory was identical to the margin that Republican Bill Cassidy defeated Mary Landrieu in the 2014 runoffs. There was a unique set of circumstances at play leading to this […]
Decision 2017 – Conclusion of Runoff Early Voting in Louisiana
In person early voting has just concluded for the November 18 runoff. As before, the special election for Treasurer is at the top of the ballot, as are several unsettled races in New Orleans, a state representative race in Covington for the House seat vacated by John Schroder (who resigned his seat to run for […]