Anyone attempting to analyze the politics of East Baton Rouge Parish needs to understand that it is a politically competitive parish that has a “gumbo” of citizens from within and without Louisiana, and even from foreign countries. By understanding these different regions, the Presidential vote in the parish for 2004, 2008, and 2012 makes more […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2012 – Louisiana Presidential Election Results
While the 2008 and 2012 Presidential election results were never in doubt in Louisiana, it’s worth noting that while President Obama’s share of the popular vote dropped from 53 to 51%, he saw a small uptick in support in Louisiana – his share of the vote went from 40 to 41% between 2008 and 2012. […]
Decision 2012 – Louisiana Early Voting (End of in person early voting)
Early voting for the Presidential election in Louisiana concluded yesterday afternoon. Even though mail in absentee ballots can still be accepted for another week, it’s interesting to see what happened with early voting, as it is becoming an increasingly popular way for Louisianians to vote Here’s what we have noticed:
Decision 2012 – Can Mitt Rommey win ?
Is the Mitt Romney campaign beyond the point of being able to win? That is the narrative that is being repeated in the media right now. We decided to independently assess his chances by using publicly available polling data. The reason we are using poll data is that is the best metric (before any votes […]
Decision 2012 – “swing state” voter registration (Part 2 of 2)
In a previous installment of this analysis, we analyzed voter registration changes in Florida, Colorado, and Iowa from 2008-2012. In this article, we will examine Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Decision 2012 – “swing state” voter registration (Part 1 of 2)
If you really want to understand underlying voter sentiments in any Presidential election season, polling is a quick and easy way to get that snapshot. However, there is a fair amount of subjectivity inherent in any poll, and variables like the person/firm conducting the polling, the timing of the poll, and similar considerations can affect […]
Decision 2012 – Primary problems for President Obama ?
Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Party primaries can predict the future. Back in August 2010, a U.S. Senate primary in Louisiana attracted 110K Democrats and Independents (in that election, Independents were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary), and the results showed that Democrats and Independents were not solidly behind former Congressman Charlie Melancon (D-Napoleonville), who […]
CATS Tax – a picture is worth a thousand words
In our previous article, we analyzed how Baton Rouge voters approved a new property tax to fund the bus system. We would like to be even more specific and let graphical data tell the story: below is the side by side comparison between the 2010 CATS vote (which failed, but the voting “universe” was for […]
Turnout matters – how Baton Rouge voters passed a tax increase
Turnout and intensity matter in elections. That’s the best way to explain how Baton Rouge voters, who both in 2009 and 2010 defeated proposed tax increases, passed a 10 mill property tax increase for the bus system (known locally as CATS) on the second attempt (an attempt to raise taxes to support the bus system […]
Decision 2012 (March 24 Louisiana primary)
Presidential – (1144 delegates to win) Romney 568 (55%), Santorum 273 (27%), Gingrich 135, Ron Paul 50, Huntsman 2 (Source: WSJ) Louisiana Primary – the Republican contest