Massachusetts, Part III (5 days until the election)

With five days until the election, a Democratic poll of 500 likely voters by Blue Mass Group/Research 2000 shows a 49-41% Martha Coakley lead. A couple of comments here:

(1) This is a Democratic polling firm, and since this is their first poll, we don’t (yet) have historical data to detect any kind of trend from their polling;

(2) Averaging all January polls together (including this one) shows a 50-43% Coakley lead – this is the same as the weighted average from yesterday (yesterday’s article here);

(3) Averaging just the last 7 days of polls together shows a 48-45% Coakley lead. In other words, a nip and tuck race – in solidly Democratic Massachusetts (remember that both Obama and John Kerry got 62% of the vote here) !

(4) Recent polls still show Coakley stalled out at about 50%, regardless of who is doing the polling.