Masachusetts, Part IV (4 days until the election)

With four days days until the election,  two new polls have come out, and not only do both show Scott Brown in the lead, but both show him with at least 50% of the vote. The polls released today showed the following:

(1)   7 News/Suffolk University polled 500 registered voters between Monday and Wednesday (note: “registered voters” doesn’t factor in those more more motivated to vote), and Scott Brown led 50-46% here (in this poll, he leads with 65% of Independents, which is a crucial bloc in Massachusetts);

(2)   Pajamas Media/Cross Target robo called 946 likely (in other words, those motivated to vote) voters on Thursday, and this poll showed a Scott Brown lead of 54-39%;

What  should one interpret from these polling numbers  ? For one thing, Pajamas Media’s poll was yesterday, while 7 News’ poll was several days ago – in this fast moving race, “several days ago” is already yesterday’s news. Plus, Pajamas Media polled likely voters (as opposed to calling those who appear on Massachusetts’ voting rolls).

Looking at the average of the multiple polls clearly shows a trend in Scott Brown’s direction: the average of all polls taken since January 1 shows a 48-46% Martha Coakley lead, while polls taken in the last seven days show a 48-46% Scott Brown lead. Keep in mind that this is in a state that gave both Barack Obama and John Kerry 62% of the vote.

Barack Obama is now coming into Masachusetts on Sunday to rescue the Coakley campaign. He also lent a hand to embattled Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in New Jersey, who ended up losing the race with 45%. Will the Obama visit have an impact ? Stay tuned…..