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Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/12 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51

In last week’s scorecard, JMC Analytics and Polling noted that the aftermath of the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings brought a “second wind” to Republican candidacies in several tight Senate races; more specifically, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota fell substantially behind for the first time, thus making Republicans’ maintaining control of the Senate a […]

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Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/9 Statehouse scorecard – The Road To 26

As part of its pre-election analysis, JMC Analytics and Polling has been examining verifiable election data (like polling and primary election results) to make assessments of Congressional races. However, what goes on at the statewide level is important as well, since governors have the ability to help shape policy. And given that this is generally […]

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Decision 2018 – JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/4 US Senate scorecard – The Road To 51

Last week, JMC Analytics and Polling brought back the Scorecard for Senate races, and that scorecard showed Republicans with a plurality lead in Senate races. Has anything changed since last week ? First, let’s talk about the criteria JMC uses to score each of the 35 Senate races on the ballot this year: Scorecard Criteria […]

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Decision 2018: (Special Election) Secretary of State poll

This November, the Secretary of State’s race is on the ballot, due to the May resignation of Tom Schedler. Upon Schedler’s resignation, his first assistant (Kyle Ardoin) then assumed office. He (Ardoin) decided at the end of qualifying to run for the job, and he is being joined by eight other candidates. JMC was commissioned […]

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Decision 2018: (Partial) Appeals Court Race poll for Ouachita Parish

Last year in an appeals court race covering all or parts of five parishes in Northeast Louisiana, Independent “Jimbo” Stephens defeated a Republican candidate 52-48%. The same GOP candidate (Judge Sharon Marchman) is seeking a rematch. JMC was commissioned to poll the Ouachita Parish precincts in the district, since Judge Marchman carried the Ouachita precincts 62-38% […]

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Decision 2018: (Partial) Appeals Court Race poll (Old version)

Last year in an appeals court race covering all or parts of five parishes in Northeast Louisiana, Independent “Jimbo” Stephens defeated a Republican candidate 52-48%. The same GOP candidate (Judge Sharon Marchman) is seeking a rematch. JMC was commissioned to poll the Ouachita Parish precincts in the district, since Judge Marchman carried the Ouachita precincts 62-38% […]

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Decision 2018: Tennessee Governor GOP Primary Poll

Tennessee is a Southern state whose partisan divisions were once so predictable that ordinary citizens could recite them by heart (East Tennessee was Republican since the Civil War, Middle Tennessee was “Andrew Jackson Democratic”, and Western Tennessee was an extension of the Deep South (and, therefore, formerly Democratic)). Suburbanization around Nashville, combined with a general […]

Decision 2018: Is a Democratic wave forming (or dissipating)?

Politically, the 2018 election season is in “half time” right now: as of June 26, 30 states have held their primaries, and primary season doesn’t resume until the Tennessee primary on August 2 (although there are party runoffs in Alabama and Georgia over the next two weeks). There has recently been talk about the Democratic […]

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Decision 2018: (Special Election) Secretary of State’s race poll

A special election is being called this fall for the Louisiana Secretary of State, as Tom Schedler (who held the office ever since Jay Dardenne was elected Lt Governor in 2010) recently resigned that position in the wake of allegations that he had sexually harassed his secretary. This race will be on the November ballot […]

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2017 Louisiana Census Estimates and Congressional Redistricting

Earlier today, JMC Analytics and Polling analyzed the July 1, 2017 Census estimates by parish for Louisiana and briefly discussed the political impacts of population shifts since the 2010 Census. This analysis will focus on a practical application of those revised population estimates: the impact on each of Louisiana’s six Congressional districts. As with any redistricting […]

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