When we analyzed the Massachusetts election returns on January 19, we noted the presence of a phenomenon called the “Obama plunge”, which refers to the drop-off in Democratic support since the 2008 Presidential election in major statewide and/or Congressional elections. This drop-off is fueled by an energized conservative base and a significant plunge in Democratic […]
New Orleans Mayor’s Race – Close of Early Voting
Previously, we noted the strong early voting in the New Orleans mayor’s race. This trend continued into the last day of early voting Saturday. The cumulative early vote total is now 16,582, of whom 68% are black and 29% are white (the racial split of the New Orleans voter rolls is 62/31% as of 1/4/2010). To put this number […]
New Orleans Mayor’s race
The City of New Orleans is having a Mayor’s race with a February 6 primary and a March 6 runoff, if necessary.
The Massachusetts Miracle – what happened ?
There will be many lengthy post mortems written about this election, so the historic victory of Scott Brown (the last time a Republican Senator in Massachusetts was victorious was in 1972) deserves some “behind the scenes” analysis.
A Masachusetts Miracle Tomorrow ?
As voters go to the polls tomorrow in Masachusetts, we are on the cusp of a major election upset by Republican Scott Brown. To illustrate how rapidly the ground has shifted on this campaign, let’s look back at the “rolling averages” of polls taken in the last few days:
Massachusetts, Part V (less than 72 hours away from the election)
Today, a poll was released from American Research Group (ARG), which polled 600 likely voters between Tuesday-Thursday, and this poll showed a 48-45% Scott Brown lead. Couple of things worth noting:
Masachusetts, Part IV (4 days until the election)
With four days days until the election, two new polls have come out, and not only do both show Scott Brown in the lead, but both show him with at least 50% of the vote. The polls released today showed the following:
Massachusetts, Part III (5 days until the election)
With five days until the election, a Democratic poll of 500 likely voters by Blue Mass Group/Research 2000 shows a 49-41% Martha Coakley lead. A couple of comments here:
More on Massachusetts
With six days until the election, a new Rasmussen poll has come out showing the Democrat Martha Coakley with a 49-47% lead. Since this is the second poll Rasmussen has done in a week, we have a “trend” now as follows:
2010 Elections, January 12 edition
2010 promises to be a busy political year. As President Obama enters his second year of office, he/ Congressional Democrats will be ultimately be graded on their performance. Because of the magnitude of filing deadlines and/or primaries, we have developed a spreadsheet to track what’s going on in each of the 50 states.