UPDATED 3/18 AM to account for Alabama’s moving its runoff from March 31 to July 14 UPDATED 3/20 AM to account for remaining votes left to count in Florida As the effects of the coronavirus continue to spread, three primaries were held last night, and the Democratic primary electorate continued to make its preference clear: […]
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RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2020: “Mini” Tuesday and more “Joe (Biden) mentum”
What a difference that a second place finish in a caucus state can make. Before the Nevada caucuses, Joe Biden’s campaign was on the ropes after weak finishes both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Yet his finishing second in the Nevada caucuses (thanks to black and union support) enabled him to get the necessary black […]
Decision 2020: Super Tuesday and “Joe (Biden) mentum”
Updated 3/4 PM and 3/5 AM to reflect Bloomberg and Warren withdrawals Super Tuesday has concluded, and former Vice President Joe Biden has staged an incredible comeback. He certainly didn’t look like a viable candidate until recently: he started off with a fourth place finish in Iowa and 15% of the vote. In New Hampshire, […]
Decision 2020: JMC’s thoughts about “Super Tuesday”
Make no mistake, Super Tuesday is a significant Election Day: 14 state contests in four different time zones that involve selection of a about third of all Democratic delegates. As a guide for these contests, JMC has some “big picture” thoughts, broken out by time zone (map of these contests shown below): In […]
Decision 2020: The South Carolina Democratic Primary
(UPDATED 3/1 PM REGARDING BUTTIGIEG WITHDRAWAL) With each additional Democratic contest, the nomination contest comes into clearer focus, although Joe Biden’s unambiguous victory tonight merely keeps him in the race, as the composition of the South Carolina Democratic electorate certainly won’t be replicated in the gauntlet of contests that the remaining five Democratic (Tom Steyer […]
Decision 2020: The Nevada Democratic Caucus
(UPDATED 2/24 PM) Last night, the 2020 Democratic nomination contest moved to Nevada, which is (sequentially in the primary contest) the first state to have a diverse primary electorate, with not just Hispanics, but blacks, those of more than one race, and unions. And now that we’re three contests in, we can start to see […]
Decision 2020: The New Hampshire Democratic Primary
(Note: updated at 10PM 2/12) With the Iowa caucuses behind us, primary season has finally begun with the “first in the nation” New Hampshire primary, and we can finally start to see the Democratic race take shape: Record turnout: In Iowa, Democratic turnout was the second highest ever, but it could be argued that a […]
Decision 2020: The Iowa Caucuses
(JMC note: entire article updated for vote counts as of 2/5/2020 PM, then on 2/11/2020 AM) The 2020 election season started off with a whimper (and certainly NOT a bang). Not only was a last minute poll bizarrely cancelled just before its public release, but (one day after the caucusing) we only have partial knowledge […]
Decision 2020: A new year, and a new election cycle
As the decade ends, a new election cycle (both in Louisiana and nationally) is about to begin. And technically (since ballots to overseas voters have already been sent out in New Hampshire) voting has already begun for what will be a multi-dimensional election cycle, with Presidential, Congressional, statewide, and local contests being held. Presidential race […]
Decision 2020: Alabama General Election U.S. Senate Poll
Alabama is a state in the Deep South that once had rock solid allegiance to the Democratic Party, but that allegiance has steadily declined over the past few decades: Republicans have continuously held the Governorship (with two exceptions) since 1986, and between 1996 and 2017, it elected two Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Furthermore, the […]