In national elections, there is hardly a more Republican-friendly state than Nebraska (which hasn’t voted Democratic since the 1964 LBJ landslide). In statewide elections, it usually (but not always) votes for Republicans. In this poll, JMC tested the re-elect/job favorability numbers for Governor Pete Ricketts and Senator Deb Fischer (who won their last campaigns with […]
Archive | 2018 Election
RSS feed for this sectionDecision 2018: Mississippi U.S. Senate poll – Republican primary
The 1994 midterm election was part of not just a Republican landslide, but arguably was the initiating event of a political realignment in the rural Deep South that swept in many Republicans who before would not have been politically viable. Roger Wicker was one of those GOP House freshmen, and he then (by appointment) ascended […]
Decision 2018: Is a Democratic wave forming?
Midterm elections are 10 months away. And given that they are generally unfavorable to the party in power, the predominant question this year is not only whether there will be a partisan shift towards the Democrats, but if the shift will be large enough to flip control of either (or both) houses of Congress. In […]
Decision 2017/2018: Dissecting the Alabama results
The US Senate special election race in Alabama to replace the seat vacated by Jeff Sessions has finally concluded. Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Moore 50-48%. Jones’ margin of victory was 20,700 votes, while another 22,800 Alabamians chose a write-in candidate. From an analysis of the results, what lessons are there to be learned from […]
Decision 2018: Nevada Republican U.S. Senate poll #2
The state of Nevada was one of the few bright spots for Democrats last year: not only did Hillary Clinton carry the sate 48-46%, but Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (by a 47-45% margin) kept the seat of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Democratic hands. Furthermore, Democrats picked up two U.S. House seats (winning […]
Decision 2018: Arizona Republican U.S. Senate poll
The state of Arizona is a Republican state that has been (in fits and starts) trending Democratic starting with the 1992 Presidential election; since then, Democrats have been eyeing the state for potential flipping in Presidential years. While the state still voted for Donald Trump in last year’s Presidential elections, his 49-45% margin was a […]
Decision 2018: Nevada Republican U.S. Senate poll
The state of Nevada is one swing state that was a bright spot for Democrats last year: not only did Hillary Clinton carry the sate 48-46%, but Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto (by a 47-45% margin) was able to keep the seat of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Democratic hands. In addition to those […]