Upset in the Mississippi Delta ?

Throughout this election cycle, we have continuously seen polls conducted for various races across the country that show dozens of Democrats (particularly in the House) in trouble. What about Congressional races closer to home ?

A month ago, we did a poll in a 63% black district (according to the 2000 Census) in the Mississippi Delta in an area roughly bounded by the Mississippi River, Natchez, Memphis, and Jackson, Mississippi/I-55. The district is majority black, but is not overwhelmingly so (in other words, there is a significant conservative voter base). The incumbent in this district is a 17 year black Democrat named Bennie Thompson who has more often than not had competitive Congressional races, but he has always won by double digits.

That poll we did last month showed that the incumbent led last month 35-34%. We recently conducted a follow-up poll, and the poll results how that the incumbent Bennie Thompson only leads 42-41% – which for an incumbent this close to the election is disastrous (his re-elect numbers, incidentally, are a similar 42-40%).

We have attached the internals of this poll here, and will let you draw your own conclusions. This is the type of race where a Republican victory (the challenger is a black conservative, incidentally) would happen in the context of a GOP wave in the 100 seat range.