Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

Note: From this week’s scorecard until November, JMC will be analyzing poll averages for the Presidential, Governor’s, and Senate contests for the last seven (and not the last 14) days, given that the tempo of the race has accelerated.

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% (or at least a 10 point lead in the polls) or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of between 3-10 points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of September 11

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 7 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 269, Donald Trump 191, Undecided 78

• Moved Connecticut from “Leans Clinton” to “Solid  Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Colorado and Maine from “Solid Clinton” to “Leans Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Ohio from “Leans Clinton” to “Tossup” since the last scorecard;
• Moved New Hampshire from “Solid Clinton” to “Tossup” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Georgia and Missouri from “Tossup” to “”Leans Trump” since the last scorecard;

Presidential Scorecard as of September 11

This past week was another good week for Donald Trump. Not only did he avoid making any major gaffes, but the poll numbers continued to tighten: what was a  43-40% Clinton lead (with 11% supporting a third party candidate) tightened a bit more to a 44-42% race (with 12% supporting a third party candidate). This tightening on the national level was similarly reflected in the state polls, as there was movement towards Trump’s direction in Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire, and Ohio, while both Georgia and Missouri are once again showing a mild preference for the Republican nominee – these movements have, for the first time since the Democratic convention, pushed Hillary Clinton below the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. And as this was happening, President Obama’s approval rating remained almost exactly the same as it was a week ago, with 51% approving of his job performance, and 47% disapproving.

One interesting assumption that is being put to the test this year is the conventional wisdom that Trump’s (compared to Clinton’s) minimal campaign spending puts him out of electoral contention: despite the tightening of the race, recent expenditure reports indicate that the Clinton campaign (and allied groups) has outspent the Trump campaign 4.5 to 1 (or $132 to $29 million dollars).

As the race tightens (and the debates loom ever closer), it will be interesting to see what (if any) impact there will be from a recent gaffe from Hillary Clinton, where she described half of Trump’s supporters as fitting into a “basket of deplorables” – would this remark (similar in tone to Mitt Romney’s “47%” gaffe four years ago) further erode her poll standing?

Finally, early voting (in the form of mailed absentee ballots) has begun in North Carolina. As of yesterday, approximately 38K ballots have been requested (a 47% increase over 2012), and 27 ballots have already been returned. North Carolina’s absentee/mail in balloting will be joined by Alabama later this week, while in person early voting begins in several states (such as Iowa and Minnesota) on September 23.

In conclusion, Donald Trump seen momentum for the third week in a row, and if this continues, he may start to, for the first time, pull ahead in critical swing states.