Presidential

(1144 delegates to win) Romney 163, Santorum 83, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 19, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)

President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)

Presidential Contest 2/29 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

The ever changing Republican Presidential contest has now swung back to Mitt Romney, although not as decisively as he may have hoped. Despite the apparent inconsistency of the Republican contest, however, battle lines within the Republican Party have begun to form in terms of patterns of support each candidate has, which we think will be apparent in each remaining contest. Romney has become the candidate of more affluent white collar suburbs and moderate/liberal Republicans, while Santorum is getting his support from rural and/or blue collar areas, and Newt Gingrich’s appeal is the most potent in areas with a significant number of native Southerners. Let’s recap last night’s two contests through this prism:

Michigan: On the surface, it should be impressive that Romney carried the state 41-38% over Santorum (Ron Paul received 12% and Newt 7%), until you realize this is a state where he grew up and his father was governor back in the 1960s. Not to mention the fact that he defeated John McCain by a wider 39-30% margin in 2008 with more candidates in the race.

The support each candidate received paralleled the developing fault lines within the party: in a five county area encompassing Detroit in southeast Michigan, you have a heavily black and union/ethnic Democratic area that also contains a significant number of moderate suburban voters whose mild Democratic preferences have enabled Democratic Presidential candidates to carry the state in each election between 1992 and 2008. 41% of the statewide vote was cast in this area last night, and Romney racked up an impressive 45-32% lead over Santorum. In the remaining 78 counties “Outstate”, Santorum had a 42-38% margin over Romney, with strongest support in more rural and/or conservative areas in western and northern Michigan. This geographic split in support is why the delegates awarded in Michigan split down the middle between Romney and Santorum.

It’s also worth noting that Republican turnout was 976,000 – a figure 12% higher than in 2008. This (turnout) is becoming the untold story of the 2012 primary season, because it’s become apparent so far that each time there is perceived to be a competitive race in that state, Republican turnout increases. This has now happened in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Maine, and Michigan.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there was a Democratic primary as well. Though President Obama was unopposed, he received 89% of the Democratic primary vote. While this is impressive, the vote for Obama against “uncommitted” was uneven across the state. He scored over 91% in Detroit, while in rural blue collar areas like the Upper Peninsula; he received 84% of the vote. This is a sign that he still has weaknesses with traditional Democrats – this is an area that gave him only 52% of the vote in 2008, and the Upper Peninsula voted in a Republican for Congress in the 2010 Republican landslide.

Arizona: This state was never in doubt, and Romney coasted to a 47-27% win over Rick Santorum (Newt Gingrich received 16% and Ron Paul 8%), carrying every county. While the fact that there is a Mormon presence here certainly didn’t hurt, Romney did the best with the more affluent white collar voters in Phoenix (where a majority of votes are cast) – he had a wide 50-25% lead over Santorum. Because this was a “winner take all” state, Romney won all of the state’s delegates.

We had noted in the Michigan write up that turnout (compared to 2008) seems to be dependent on the level of perceived competition, and this is what happened in Arizona. Everyone expected Romney to win there, and accordingly, turnout was down 16% from 2008.

What lies ahead

The state of Washington is holding a nonbinding caucus this Saturday. While the mildly liberal orientation of this state would seem to suggest a Romney win, caucuses (more so than primaries) tend to reflect the views of its party activists, which helps Santorum, who in a February 21 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling had a 38-27% lead over Romney. If this lead held up, it would be shown that Santorum has become the conservative alternative to Romney, and can go toe to toe with him in next week’s contests.

Going into Super Tuesday (now a week away), Santorum seems to have the upper hand in Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Romney should dominate in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia (only he and Ron Paul qualified on the primary ballot). Newt has a respectable 36-27% lead in Georgia over Santorum, and is expected to carry the state, given that he was a Georgia Congressman for 20 years.

That leaves Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota. Given Santorum’s strength in more rural Midwestern enclaves, he should win North Dakota, while the heavily Mormon population in Idaho (as well as the migration of white collar Californians to Boise) should enable Romney to win there. Alaska is a tossup, given that you have a white collar urban area (Anchorage) surrounded by rural territory.

We’re watching Ohio for clues as to who will dominate next Tuesday. If Santorum wins Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, and is competitive in Georgia, that establishes him as king of “flyover country”, while Romney becomes the candidate of the East Coast, West Coast, the Mountain West, and (we believe) Illinois.

Congressional/Statewide contests

Generic Congressional vote: 43-42 Republican/Democrat (14 day rolling average)

Statewide/Congressional primaries are about to start soon, as Ohio holds its primary next week. In March, the Congressional stage will begin to take shape, as 15 additional states will have their filing deadlines conclude during that time. In the immediate future, North Carolina closes its filing today, while tomorrow is Arkansas and Nebraska. Thus far, nine states have concluded Congressional qualifying.

There were two Congressional retirements since last week: moderate senator Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), (who was elected in the 1994 GOP landslide; and California Republican Congressman David Drier, who was elected in 1980. That now brings the retirement count to 38 House members (22 Democrats and 16 Republicans) and 10 Senators (7 Democrats and 3 Republicans).