Presidential

(1144 delegates to win) Romney 415 (56%), Santorum 176 (24%), Gingrich 105, Ron Paul 47, Huntsman 2 (WSJ)

President Obama Job Approval 47-49% (14 day rolling average)

Presidential Contest 3/7 (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

Last night, 10 states held their Presidential contests, and the results seem to indicate two things: (1) the Republican primary contest is very much still in play, and (2) the demographic battle lines are solidifying in terms of bases of support for each candidate. Frontrunner Mitt Romney’s coalition includes moderate/liberal Republicans on either coast, affluent urban neighborhoods, Western voters, and Mormons. Rick Santorum now has a national base of religious voters, middle income suburbs, and small towns, with one important exception: portions of the Deep South with a large percentage of native Southerners – that voter bloc is still solidly behind Newt Gingrich.

This electoral mosaic has now established Rick Santorum as the candidate who can compete against Romney at a national level, although the fact that both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are remaining in the race means that Romney can/will keep winning primaries/caucuses with less than 50% of the vote.

With the sheer number of races last night, we will examine the results through the prism of what they mean for each of the three major contenders.

Newt Gingrich – His overwhelming win in Georgia (47-26% over Romney) kept him in the race, and was a wholehearted endorsement from a state he represented in Congress for two decades. The contours of his support in Georgia were quite similar to South Carolina – he carried all but the urban cores of Atlanta and Savannah. This means that he is in a strong position for next week’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, as well as the March 24 primary in Louisiana (early voting begins this Saturday). Beyond that, it is unclear what else he will win before the May primaries in North Carolina, Kentucky, and Arkansas – outside of Georgia, he was only competitive in Tennessee and Oklahoma, with a close third place finish in both states.

Rick Santorum – His wins in North Dakota, Tennessee, and Oklahoma have established him as a national contender and not just a regional candidate, and his strength is in rural and/or less affluent areas. He has a major hurdle to overcome; however, he has thus far been unable to defeat Romney in any of the larger states. And these states will have a substantial presence in the race starting with Illinois’ March 20 primary. Plus, the fact that conservative opposition to Romney is divided also puts Santorum at a competitive disadvantage.

Mitt Romney – The fact that he carried six states (Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, Alaska, and crucial Ohio) would in other election years make him the prohibitive front runner. Except that in the states he won, his performance reiterates his inability to “close the deal.” Even with Ron Paul as his sole opponent in Virginia (Gingrich and Santorum failed to qualify), he only received 60% of the vote there – outside of the Washington DC suburbs in northern Virginia, his percentage was only 58%. In Vermont, a state thought to be overwhelmingly his only gave him 40% of the vote.

Nevertheless, his Ohio win over Santorum (combined with last week’s hard fought victories in Michigan, Wyoming, and the state of Washington) shows that he knows what it takes to get to the finish line. And his continuing strength in urban areas does theoretically give him the ability to compete against President Obama in swing states like Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

From a tactical perspective, he is in a strong position to become the nominee as long as Newt Gingrich remains in the race, since he can continue to win with pluralities. Furthermore, he is well positioned to sweep Illinois’ primary on March 20, as well as at least 5 of the 7 states holding contests in April.

Upcoming contests – We expect that this month’s upcoming contests will do little to settle the race. This weekend, Kansas is having its caucuses. Given his level of support in smaller towns/the Midwest, Santorum should do well here, although Newt Gingrich will attempt to compete. Next Tuesday, three states are having contests: Alabama, Mississippi, and Hawaii. We expect Romney to win in Hawaii and Gingrich to sweep Alabama and Mississippi. However, the fact that Santorum carried Tennessee means that he can compete in those states. From there, the Illinois primary is on March 20, and we expect a strong Romney vote from that state. That leaves us with the March 24 Louisiana primary, and while Newt Gingrich is in a strong position to win, Santorum will be competitive with Christian conservative voters.

Turnout and President Obama – These miscellaneous topics have only received passing mention, yet they do have a bearing on the 2012 election. We have begun to notice a pattern with Republican turnout compared to 2008: in general, the more competitive a state’s contest is, the stronger that turnout has been. For example, the Ohio contest was very competitive (as was Michigan last week), and in both cases, increases in turnout were in double digits compared to the 2008 Republican primary in those states (Michigan’s turnout increased 12%, while Ohio showed an 18% increase). On the flip side, the fact that the Virginia race was a two man race resulted in a 46% plunge in turnout compared to 2008, while in Massachusetts,  turnout was down 28%.

Finally, we have been assessing President Obama’s electoral position by following the percentage of the vote he has been getting in states holding Democratic presidential primaries. One interesting pattern seems to have developed: when he runs against “uncommitted”, he typically wins near unanimous percentages. This was the case in Massachusetts (89%), Michigan, (89%), and Tennessee (90%).  In states where he actually had opposition on the primary ballot, his percentages have been lower. For example, he received 82% of the New Hampshire primary vote, while in Oklahoma, he received an embarrassingly low 57% of the Democratic primary vote. If these kinds of percentages were to continue, it would be a warning sign for the President in places like the Midwest, where the rural Democratic vote is a critical part of building a winning coalition in states like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Congressional/Statewide contests

Generic Congressional vote: 44-42 Republican/Democrat (14 day rolling average)

Last night was important in another way as well: Ohio was the first state to have its primary for statewide/Congressional races. Curiously, primary voters were not particularly friendly to incumbents in either party. Republican Jean Schmidt has had competitive races both in the primary and general election ever since her narrow win in 2005, and was upset 49-43% by Iraq war veteran Brad Wenstrup. Democrat Dennis Kucinich also was defeated 56-40% in the primary, although in his case, it was because redistricting paired him with another Democratic incumbent. Democratic primary voters were also unkind to defeated incumbents seeking a comeback: Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy was elected in 2008 on President Obama’s coattails in a Columbus based district, but her support of the Democratic agenda cost her the seat in 2010. Even though redistricting was kind to her – the Republican Legislature created a safely Democratic seat in inner city Columbus – she still came up short in the Democratic primary.

Unlike the Presidential contest, Congressional/statewide contests are moving at a much slower pace: only three states are having their primaries this month. Alabama and Mississippi are holding primaries in conjunction with the Presidential primary next Tuesday, while the Illinois primary is also being held in conjunction with the state’s March 20 Presidential primary. There will be competitive contests worth watching in each of those three states.

Meanwhile, Congressional qualifying has concluded in four more states (Arkansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Oregon), which means that the Congressional playing field is set in 13 states. While there were no surprise retirements or unopposed candidates, the Senate race in Nebraska has gotten more competitive, as former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey changed his mind and decided to seek his old seat after all in an open seat contest.

If you count the incumbents who lost in Ohio, the “retirement count” is now 42 House members (25 Democrats and 17 Republicans) and 10 Senators (7 Democrats and 3 Republicans).  The Congressional playing field will become clearer by the end of the month: 13 more states will conclude candidate qualifying by March 31. In fact, by the end of this week, filing will conclude in California, Idaho, and Texas (the courts have implemented interim Congressional maps and have decreed a May 29 primary)