In a special Congressional election held tonight, the Democrats maintained their control of a staunchly Democratic district in South Florida, despite the GOP nominee’s making this race a referendum on healthcare reform. Are there any lessons to be learned from this 62-35% Democratic victory ?

Introduction As the fall elections get closer, we’ve been analyzing the likely outcome based on available data like an incumbent’s voting record on controversial items (the stimulus, “cap and trade”, and healthcare reform), his/her 2008 re-election percentage, and the level of support for Barack Obama in those districts. This analysis has been performed while considering […]

The upset election of Scott Brown to the vacant Senate seat held by the late Teddy Kennedy seemed to be further confirmation of what we described in this post as the “Obama plunge.” This term referred to our belief that the percentage of the vote Barack Obama and/or Democratic Congressional candidates received in 2008 was […]