Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% (or at least a 10-point lead in the polls) or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of between 3-10 points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of September 18

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 7 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 256, Donald Trump 215, Undecided 67

• Moved Maine and Colorado from “Leans Clinton” to “Tossup” since the last scorecard
• Moved Iowa and Ohio from “Tossup” to “”Leans Trump” since the last scorecard

Presidential Scorecard as of September 18

The last couple of weeks have not been good for Hillary Clinton. First, she described half of Trump’s supporters as fitting into a “basket of deplorables” – a remark similar in tone to Mitt Romney’s “47%” gaffe four years ago. Then last Sunday (after the September 11 scorecard was published), she overheated at a 9/11 ceremony, after which it was revealed not only that she was being treated for pneumonia, but this diagnosis had happened two days before the overheating incident. This changed the tenor of the Presidential contest for the next few days, with both candidates publicly releasing their medical records.

What may also impact the race in upcoming days is that several days ago, Donald Trump disavowed any talk that he doubted President Obama’s American citizenry, and he then promptly blamed Hillary Clinton for “starting it first.”

Finally, the commission charged with overseeing the upcoming debates decided against including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (the Libertarian and Green Party candidates) in the first debate. Given that Johnson was slowly rising in the polls, this action was somewhat of a setback to his campaign.

And while all this was happening, Donald Trump had another good week: he has eliminated the two point poll deficit he had last week, and he is now in a statistically tied 43-43% tie with Hillary Clinton (with 11% supporting a third party candidate). And, just like last week, the state polling also reflected his movement in the polls on the national level, with Trump pulling ahead both in Iowa and Ohio, while Maine and Colorado are now tossup states (since Maine awards its electoral vote by Congressional district, Donald Trump currently has an excellent chance of winning the electoral vote connected to the more rural 2nd Congressional District). And the same time, President Obama’s approval rating remained at 51-47%, which suggests that the Clinton gaffes were what were driving the negative electoral movement for her.

Can Donald Trump win ? Given that the Clinton lead in the Electoral College has tightened to 256 to 215 over Trump (270 are required to win), Trump MUST (at a minimum) keep all the states where he is ahead, while picking up Florida (where he leads 46-44) and North Carolina (where he is tied 42-42). Those two pickups would bring him to a 259 to 256 lead over Clinton. To get to 270, he’d have to pick up at least one of the following tossup/leaning Clinton states, in ascending order of difficulty for him:

• Michigan (Clinton leads 43-39)
• Wisconsin (Clinton leads 43-39)
• Virginia (Clinton leads 45-39)
• Pennsylvania (Clinton leads 46-40)
• (UPDATED 9/18 PM)  Minnesota (Clinton leads 44-38)

Alternatively, there are a handful of tossup states that do not (by themselves) have enough electoral votes to put Trump over the top, so Trump would have to win a combination of two of these: Nevada (43-43 tie), Colorado (40-39 Clinton), and New Hampshire (41-39 Clinton).

And while each candidate attempts to build a coalition to get to 270 electoral votes, it’s important to realize that early voting (in the form of mailed absentee ballots) has begun in North Carolina in Alabama, and as of this morning, 51K ballots in North Carolina have been mailed, and over 1500 ballots have been returned. In person early voting itself also begins in several days in Idaho, Minnesota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

In conclusion, while Donald Trump seen momentum for the fourth week in a row, it is critical for him to have a solid path to 270 electoral votes. Furthermore, the first debate (which will be held in eight days) will go a long way towards enabling soft voters and/or undecideds to have a good basis for comparison between the two candidates.