Republicans

Throughout this election season, Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes have continuously changed – almost on a weekly basis, although a pattern has begun to emerge: (1) As long as the GOP field is divided, the only thing that can hurt Donald Trump is his tendency to “push the envelope” on making unconventional statements, (2) any direct (through scathing denunciations) or indirect (through endorsements of Trump’s competitors) attempt to derail Trump’s candidacy has not only been a consistent failure, but these actions have given him his electoral oxygen, and (3) the only other vulnerability Trump has seems to be in closed primaries where only Republicans can vote.

So while last week’s contests were less than stellar for Donald Trump, last night’s contests produced a better outcome for him: he won 3 out of 4 contests (his only loss was in a closed primary contest in Idaho), and he is currently in a strong position to win next week’s contests on March 15 in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, especially since his three opponents seem to be staying in the race for at least another week.

That the opposition to Trump remains divided is a key concept: while Trump’s Mississippi win (he defeated Ted Cruz 47-36%) wasn’t one sided as his 43-21% victory in neighboring Alabama a week ago, both victories get equal treatment by political handicappers. Similarly, in Michigan, the fact that Cruz and Kasich split 49% of the vote down the middle (Rubio got another 9%) enabled Trump to post another win with just 37% of the vote.

Overall, the GOP nomination race is slowly but surely becoming a Trump vs Cruz contest. Marco Rubio did not come close to winning a single contest yesterday, and his best showing (with 16%) was in Idaho – in Mississippi, he even ran behind Kasich. And while John Kasich finished a strong third in Michigan (he only finished 8200 votes behind Ted Cruz), this contest was on friendlier turf. He HAS to win Ohio next week just to be able to compete in upcoming Midwestern/Northeastern contests after March 15 – by next Tuesday, every Southern state will have voted.

Similarly, Rubio is facing a “do or die” situation in Florida next week, although the fact that he is having to fight just to win his home state is an indication that his candidacy is reaching its end.

As before, GOP turnout in last night’s contests reached record levels again: an estimated 2.0 million voted in the Republican primaries – 1.3 million voted in 2012, while 1.2 million did in 2008.

Democrats

In previous articles, we had noted that Hillary Clinton’s candidacy was buttressed by strong support from the “big three” Democratic constituencies of unions, Hispanics, and blacks. Last night’s contests, however, showed that union voters were not as solidly in her corner as was previously thought. While the Mississippi vote of 83-17% for Hillary was a testament to her strength among blacks, Sanders upset Clinton 50-48% in Michigan, as his anti-free trade rhetoric obviously struck a chord among blue collar voters there.

Democratic turnout was a mixed bag: while the 221K who voted in Mississippi was half the 2008 turnout figure, 1.2 million voted in Michigan. While this figure was double the 2008 turnout, it’s also important to note that the 2008 contest in Michigan violated Democratic Party rules because it was held too early, so Barack Obama and several other candidates were not even on the ballot.

Looking ahead

Starting next week, GOP contests are allowed to be “winner take all”, which means that even a candidate who wins by 1% will get all of that state’s delegates. This will increase the tempo of the race, and as long as the Republican field is divided among four candidates, Donald Trump is in a strong position to keep posting wins in state after state.