Decision 2016: Seven wins and seven takeaways from “Super Tuesday”

  1. On the Democratic side, this was Hillary Clinton’s night. She won seven contests (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia), while Bernie Sanders won four (Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont);
  2. What now puts Hillary on the path towards the Democratic nomination is that she clearly dominated among blacks, Hispanics, and (arguably) union voters (she carried Massachusetts over Bernie Sanders, who as a “next door neighbor” should have won) – support from these core Democratic constituencies is what it takes to get the Democratic nomination;
  3. On the Republican side, Donald Trump had a good night, but not a great night – he did not dominate as much as previous performances would suggest he should have. He, like Hillary Clinton, similarly carried seven states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia), while Ted Cruz had a good night by carrying three states (Alaska, Oklahoma, and Texas), and Marco Rubio carried Minnesota (although he did come close to winning Virginia);
  4. As with previous contests, the pattern of record Republican enthusiasm continued: in last night’s primary/caucus contests, Republican turnout increased from 5.1 million voters in 2008 to an estimated 8.6 million voters last night, or a 68% increase in turnout;
  5. On the other hand, Democratic turnout/enthusiasm continued to sag: While 8.6 million Democrats participated in the Obama/Clinton contests in 2008, only 6 million showed up last night to choose between Clinton and Sanders, or a 30% decrease;
  6. The nomination contest now moves into a different phase for the “Big Three” (Trump, Cruz, and Rubio) Republicans: Louisiana’s primary is this Saturday (several other states have contests as well), while the larger northern states start voting next Tuesday (the Michigan contest next Tuesday is the first, and they allow crossover voting). And starting on March 15, not only do Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio vote, but contests start to become “winner take all”, which will accelerate the accumulation of delegates for the “Big Three” candidate who wins each state. And while Rubio and Cruz notched wins last night, coming in second or third in contests starting March 15 will be of no benefit to either candidate;
  7. Despite speculation about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz’s bringing “anti establishment” Republican voters to the polls who would defeat Republican Congressional incumbents in their primaries, there was no evidence that this happened last night: contested Senate/House seats in Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas were easily won by Republican incumbents. But it will be interesting, as Congressional primaries occur in other states, if this spate of incumbent re-elections becomes a trend, or if there is true anti-incumbent sentiment out there.