Background

The Louisiana Legislature consists of 105 representatives and 39 senators, all of whom are elected for four year terms. On average, each representative represents 43,000 people, while a senator (on average) represents 116,000 people.

Even though the contours of these districts are redrawn only once a decade, the demographics of these 144 legislative districts are continually changing. Towards that end, we would like to assess these demographic changes by examining voter registration data between April 1, 2010 (when the last Census was taken) and March 1, 2014 (the most recent voter registration data available) from a population, racial, and partisan perspective.

I Population changes

In general, changes in voter registration over time can approximate population growth. It is true that if you were to examine changes in voter registration between 2010-2014, you might get the impression that population growth has been flat between 2010-2014. However, there was a periodic voter purge after the 2012 Presidential election which reduced the statewide electorate by 49K, or about 2%. Still, if we look at changes in individual legislative districts in the last four years, we can see where population changes have been taking place.

From a population change perspective, the fastest growth is in a triangle shaped area along Interstates 10 and 12 between Lafayette, Slidell, and Gonzales, while districts within the city limits of New Orleans lost the most voters. Below are the fastest/slowest growing districts, as well as a graphical map:

Biggest gainers in voter population

House 59 +13% (Represented by Eddie Lambert (R-Prairieville))

House 77 +11% (Represented by John Schroder (R-Covington))

House 43 +10% (Represented by Stuart Bishop (R-Lafayette))

Senate 18 +10% (Represented by “Jody” Amedee (R-Gonzales))

Senate 23 +7% (Represented by “Page” Cortez (R-Lafayette))

Senate 11 +6% (Represented by Jack Donahue (R-Covington))

Biggest losers in voter population

House 99 -22% (Represented by Wesley Bishop (D-New Orleans))

House 97 -14% (Represented by Jared Brossett (D-New Orleans))

House 93 -12% (Represented by Helena Moreno (D-New Orleans))

Senate 3 -13% (Represented by JP Morrell (D-New Orleans))

Senate 4 -11% (Represented by Ed Murray (D-New Orleans))

Senate 5 -8% (Represented by Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans))

2010-2014 population growth of Louisiana Senate districts

2010-2014 population growth of Louisiana Senate districts (SE Louisiana)

2010-2014 population growth of Louisiana House districts

2010-2014 population growth of Louisiana House districts (NW Louisiana)

2010-2014 population growth of Louisiana House districts (SE Louisiana)

II Racial changes

Since the last Census was taken, the number of white voters (in absolute terms) has decreased by 1.1%, the number of black voters has increased 1.4%, and the number of Asian/Hispanic voters has increased 4.3%. When examining racial changes, two things are immediately apparent: (1) it is in select urban districts in Shreveport, Monroe, Baton Rouge, the Westbank, and St Bernard Parish where racial change has been noticeable, (2) gentrification in New Orleans has been diluting the black majority in several districts, which could make these black majority districts competitive by the time the next Census comes around.

Greatest racial change – increased black percentage

House 101: from 62-33% to 68-27% black (+5.4%) (Represented by Ted James (D-Baton Rouge))

House 16: from 59-38% to 63-34% black (+4.4%) (Represented by Katrina Jackson (D-Monroe))

House 103: from 76-17% to 70-21% white (+4.3%) (Represented by Ray Garofalo (R-Meraux))

Senate 15:  from 69-28% to 72-24% black (+3.6%) (Represented by Sharon Weston Broome (D-Baton Rouge))

Senate 38:  from 65-31% to 62-34% white (+2.9%) (Represented by Sherri Smith Buffington (R-Keithville))

Senate 8:  from 61-29% to 58-32% white (+2.5%) (Represented by John Alario (R-Westwego))

Greatest racial change – increased white percentage

House 93: from 65-28% to 59-34% black (-6.4%) (Represented by Helena Moreno (D-New Orleans))

House 91: from 64-29% to 60-34% black (-4.7%) (Represented by Walt Leger III (D-New Orleans))

House 99: from 82-14% to 78-17% black (-3.9%) (Represented by Wesley Bishop (D-New Orleans))

Senate 5:  from 56-37% to 51-41% black (-4.9%) (Represented by Karen Carter Peterson (D-New Orleans))

Senate 4:  from 65-29% to 62-32% black (-3.2%) (Represented by Ed Murray (D-New Orleans))

Senate 3:  from 61-32% to 61-31% black (-0.4%) (Represented by JP Morrell (D-New Orleans))

III Partisan changes

In terms of voter registration and those who are holding office, there has been a steady movement away from the Democratic Party, and the 2010-2014 statistics confirm the continuation of this trend: in absolute numbers, the number of Democrats has declined 8.1%, while the number of Republicans has increased 7.6%, and the number of Independents has increased 9.3%. The statistics point out two things: (1) Democratic registration is plunging/Republican registration is increasing the most in the “Cajun” parishes of South Louisiana, which suggests that the political upheaval from the 2010 BP oil spill continues to hurt the Democrats in those parishes most dependent on oil drilling, (2) there is a bit of a “counter trend” in racially changing and/or settled districts with little growth in the state’s urban areas: Republican registration has actually declined a bit in 25 House and 4 Senate districts, although the beneficiary of these changes has been the Independents and NOT the Democrats.

Greatest partisan voter registration change – increased Republican registration

House 52: from 40-32% to 33-39% Dem/Rep (Represented by Gordon Dove (R-Houma))

House 48: from 44-33% to 36-39% Dem/Rep (Represented by Taylor Barras (R-New Iberia))

House 46: from 60-20% to 51-25% Dem/Rep (Represented by Mike Huval (R-Breaux Bridge))

Senate 32: from 53-27% to 46-31% Dem/Rep (Represented by Neil Riser (R-Columbia))

Senate 21: from 51-25% to 45-29% Dem/Rep (Represented by Bret Allain II (R-Franklin))

Senate 22: from 57-22% to 49-27% Dem/Rep (Represented by Fred Mills (R-St Martinville))

IV Conclusion

Changes in voter registration between 2010-2014 point to three trends that are occurring: (1) continued suburbanization along the I-10 and I-12 corridors (which for now helps the Republicans), (2) gentrification within New Orleans, which could be the genesis for a voter base of urban, white liberal Democrats (since the districts in question have remained heavily Democratic), (3) the continuing realignment of voters towards the Republican Party in areas (generally in south and southwest Louisiana) that were solidly Democratic as recently as five years ago.