Background

in Louisiana, school districts are usually synonymous with the parish lines, with five exceptions: Monroe, Bogalusa, Baker, Zachary, and Central – these are separate school districts within their respective parishes.

It is the Baker, Zachary, and Central school districts that deserve special attention, since these districts are the context under which the southeast portion of East Baton Rouge Parish seeks to become the next independent school district. For years, a contentious and long running desegregation case in East Baton Rouge Parish was the catalyst that caused Baker, Zachary, and Central (incorporated municipalities within East Baton Rouge Parish) to form their own school districts over the past decade.

Currently, the southeast portion of East Baton Rouge Parish (i.e., all territory south of I-12 and east of I-10) wishes to form its own school district. For this to happen, the following hurdles be cleared: (1) a 2/3 vote of both houses of the Louisiana Legislature, (2) statewide voter approval, and (3) approval of voters in the affected area.

While the proposed constitutional amendment passed the Louisiana Senate both in 2012 and 2013 with the required 2/3 vote, it has been the House where the bill has had problems. On two separate occasions in 2012, the bill failed to get the necessary 2/3 (or 70) votes for passage: on the first attempt, the bill “passed” 66-34 with 5 abstentions, while on the second attempt, the bill “passed” 61-35 with 9 abstentions.

House members by “voting bloc”

So what will it take for the bill/constitutional amendment to pass with 70 votes in the House this time? To get to 70 votes, we have to analyze the prior House votes on the bill through the prism of four vote “blocs”:

Republicans: On both attempts, the bill received unanimous support from Republicans. However, on the second attempt, four Republicans did not vote. Obviously, a unanimous vote of 58 Republicans (which is what happened on the 66-34 attempt) is the first step towards 70 votes;

Independents: On both attempts, the bill received unanimous support from the House’s two Independents. Their votes are similarly crucial this time around;

Even if the 60 Republicans and Independents combined support the bill unanimously, where would the remaining 10 votes for passage come from? This is where a closer examination of the votes from the 45 House Democrats is crucial; without getting 10 votes from 45 Democrats, the proposed amendment will fail.

Black Democrats: the reality of the situation is that the proposed breakaway school district has become a racially charged issue. On both attempts at passage, black legislators in the House unanimously opposed the bill 22-0-1 (there was one absence each time). Since committee/Senate votes this year have fallen along racial lines, it must be assumed that there will be up to 23 solid “no” votes on the proposed legislation.

White Democrats: Backers of the amendment must therefore get their 10 remaining votes from a potential “pool” of 22 white House Democrats as follows:

(Likely Yes): Three House Democrats (Jim Fannin of Jonesboro, Mickey Guillory of Eunice, and Major Thibaut of New Roads) voted “yes” both times the bill came up last year, and these three votes theoretically are the “low hanging fruit” in this effort towards getting 10 additional votes.

(Probably Yes): Three more House Democrats (Mike Danahay of Sulphur, Dorothy Sue Hill of Dry Creek, and Jack Montoucet of Scott) voted yes on one of the attempts, but were absent on the other attempt. While these are probably “yes” votes this time, a special effort must be made to make sure these members vote.

(Switched) Karen St Germain of Pierre Part switched from “no” the first time to “yes” the second time, while Harold Ritchie of Bogalusa switched from “yes” to “no”. Rep. Ritchie represents a Republican leaning district with a 30% black electorate, while Rep. St Germain’s district was 41% black. While these two votes must be obtained with some extra effort, it’s important to appreciate that the demographics of Rep. St Germain’s district would make her “yes” vote a bit more of a challenge.

(Theoretically possible votes) Even assuming that “yes” votes can be obtained from the coalitions mentioned above, the proposed amendment would still be two votes short of passage. Given that there are 14 Democrats left to choose from, which ones (theoretically) are obtainable?

You can immediately strike four Democrats off the remaining list: John Bel Edwards of Amite, and Jeff Arnold, Walt Leger, and Helena Moreno of New Orleans. These Democrats represent black majority districts and voted against the bill twice. That leaves us with 10 Democrats, who can be stratified into one of two groups:

• GROUP ONE: Andy Anders of Ferriday, Neil Abramson of New Orleans, and Robert Billiot of Westwego. Each of these representatives is a unique case. While Billiot represents a black majority district and voted “no” both times, he also voted against the Medicaid expansion (aka “Obamacare”) bill a couple of days ago, which suggests he is at least approachable. Rep. Anders similarly represents a black majority district, but that black majority is very tenuous, depending on turnout. Plus, he abstained from voting both times. In Rep. Abramson’s case, he abstained both times, but he represents a district that, although based in white liberal dominant Uptown New Orleans, is 26% black.
• GROUP TWO: These seven Democrats voted “no” both times to the bill (and, curiously, also supported the Medicaid expansion bill). Still, their districts’ demographics have at least a Republican lean to them, as follows:
  • “Truck” Gisclair of Larose (2% black, 81% for Romney)
  • Steve Ortego of Carencro (24% black, 67% for Romney)
  • Bernard LeBas of Ville Platte (27% black, 65% for Romney)
  • James Armes of Leesville (24% black, 63% for Romney)
  • Robert Johnson of Marksville (27% black, 63% for Romney)
  • Eugene Reynolds of Minden (30% black, 63% for Romney)
  • Sam Jones of Franklin (37% black, 56% for Romney)

Conclusion

Getting 70 votes to submit a constitutional amendment to the voters is always a challenge; in the case of the proposed Southeast Baton Rouge school district, there are two tasks which must simultaneously be executed: (1) making sure all 66 members who voted yes once or twice (and didn’t switch their vote) are present, and (2) getting four more votes out of a pool of 12 white Democrats (the two representatives who switched their vote, plus 10 Democrats whose votes are theoretically could be persuaded to vote for the bill based on contextual factors like prior votes and demographics).

Maps

SE school district vote – statewide by House district

Democratic “swing” votes – statewide

Democratic “swing” votes – SE Louisiana