In the first part of our analysis, we examined changes in Louisiana voter registration over the past decade. There is another layer to this analysis to get a complete picture, however – examining voter registration data by a voter’s age, since the political views of each generation are invariably shaped by the political context of the time period that a given voter “came of age.”

Historically, Louisiana was a solidly Democratic state, and Republicans weren’t really a factor in elections until recently. What initiated this change in political preference? It was a series of external events: (1) the turmoil of the 1960s and President Nixon’s “Southern Strategy”, which gave Republicans in Louisiana some initial legitimacy, (2) the development in the late 1970s of the “open primary” which, in the words of John Maginnis, “brought the Republicans into the main arena of state politics”, since at that time, the Louisiana Democratic Party “was like the air – you weren’t really aware of it, but you sure weren’t going to try breathing anything else”, (3) the presidency of Ronald Reagan, which pretty much ended the “Democratic Solid South” in Presidential contests, (4) the first term of Bill Clinton, which brought about political realignment in terms of Republicans’ winning  Congressional and legislative contests outside of East Baton Rouge, Orleans, Caddo, and Jefferson Parishes, (5) the disruptive effects of Hurricane Katrina throughout the state, (6) term limits’ opening up competitive legislative seats starting with the 2007 state elections, and (7) the BP oil spill/drilling moratorium in 2010, which soured many ancestral Democrats on their party.

Given this historical context, let’s look at the breakdown of Louisiana’s voters by age brackets:

65 and older: These are essentially the “pre Baby Boomers”, and their political views were shaped both by the existence of the “Democratic Solid South” and of the Longs’ populism.  This voter bloc makes up 19% of the statewide voter registration, and has the following characteristics (note that this age range is the whitest and the most Democratic by party registration):

46 to 64 years old: This group came of age at a time Louisiana’s economy was booming, although these were also the first voters to begin experimenting with voting for and registering as Republicans – something clearly apparent when you notice the small plurality Republicans have among white voters in this age range.  This voter bloc makes up 34% of the statewide voter registration, is currently the largest voter bloc, and has the following characteristics: 

30 to 45 years old: This group is essentially the “Reagan generation”, although you also have voters who came of political age in the Clinton years, when it became acceptable to vote Republican in down ballot races. Republicans have their biggest voter registration advantage with this group among white voters. This voter bloc makes up 27% of the statewide voter registration, and has the following characteristics:

18 to 29 years old: This group came of age during the George W Bush and Obama presidencies. Nationally, this is a liberal voting bloc; in Louisiana, there is a decided Republican preference by voter registration, but this preference isn’t as one sided as the “Reagan/Clinton” generation was. In fact, “Independent” (No Party, Libertarian, Green, etc) voter registration is now a substantial minority of voters in this age range, so in a sense, voter registration among this group reflects current political preferences. And while there are very few white Democrats by voter registration, this is ethnically a more diverse voter bloc than previous generations. Not only are close to 40% of voters in this age range black, but the Asian/Hispanic percentage is above 5% (in Jefferson, Sabine, and Terrebonne Parishes, the Asian/Hispanic percentage is above 10%). This voter bloc makes up 20% of the statewide voter registration, and has the following characteristics (it’s also worth noting that Republicans have made no gains in black voter registration in this age group):

Conclusion:

• Examining voter registration by age group shows that white Democrats are steadily losing members, and they essentially have no “replacements” among younger voters;
• While Republican registration is more popular among those under 65 years old, that does not equate to eternal Republican dominance for the following reasons: (1) More and more voters are choosing to register with one of the minor parties, or not affiliate with either of the “Big Two” parties, (2) blacks are becoming more substantial of a voter bloc when looking at younger voters, and (3) Asians/Hispanics are establishing a foothold as well. Reasons (2) and (3), if looking at current political preferences, suggests that Democratic “replacements” will be found among black (and maybe Hispanic and Asian) voters.