In our previous installment, we noted that Mississippi has decided on its Democratic nominee for Governor, while in Wisconsin, the two Democrats up for recall survived the recall elections, thus leaving the Wisconsin Senate at 17-16 Republican.

September elections

In addition to candidate qualifying in Louisiana (discussed here) on September 6-8, there will be special Congressional elections on September 13 in Nevada and New York. In Nevada, the Republican has benefitted from strong Republican early voting, and is currently the favorite to hold the seat for the GOP (its former occupant vacated the seat when the state’s Republican governor appointed him to a vacated U.S. Senate seat). Additionally, Democrats do not seem to be investing much in terms of resources in this race, which is an implicit statement as to what they think their chances are.

Democrats are nervous about New York : a heavily Jewish district that elected Democrats like Chuck Schumer for 18 years and Anthony Weiner for the following 13 years is showing signs of discontent with the Obama administration. And recent blunders by Democrat David Weprin haven’t helped: in addition to stating that the national debt was $4 trillion, he canceled an appearance at a debate sponsored by a neighborhood association. This behavior (apparent overconfidence, combined with verbal gaffes) is similar to another recent “inevitable” Democratic candidate: Democrat Martha Coakley, who in heavily Democratic Massachusetts managed to fall behind in the final days to Republican Scott Brown in the special election called to fill the seat of the late Senator Edward Kennedy. Though we’re not yet ready to call this race a possible upset, it’s newsworthy when Democrats are fighting to hold onto a seat in New York City, especially since Democrats have held a majority of the U.S. House delegation in New York since the 1950s.

October elections

Within the borders of Louisiana, all eyes will be on the October 22 primary. Before that, however, West Virginia is holding a special election for governor on October 4. The appointed incumbent Democrat (Earl Ray Tomblin) is favored,but his Republican opponent has the resources to compete.