Open Seat (Incumbent is “Mert” Smiley (R))

District Map

House District 88

Vote History

Current District

In recent years, the dominance of Democrats in local races has begun to fade. One of the initiating events was explosive suburban growth outside of Baton Rouge and New Orleans. As this was occurring in Ascension and Livingston Parishes, what was once a white working class constituency that overwhelmingly supported Democrats has become Republican territory.

District 88 contains most of Livingston Parish south of I-12 and the easternmost fringes of Ascension Parish. These portions of Livingston and Ascension Parishes were once the more Democratic portions of each parish, despite the fact that black voter registration was and is a miniscule 5%. However, when the district was newly drawn in 2003, it elected a Republican, “Mert” Smiley of St. Amant. In that race, his 54% victory was due to overwhelming 72% support in Ascension, while receiving a respectable 41% of the vote in Livingston Parish. However, with the Republican in migration to the district (between 2003 and 2011, Democratic voter registration plunged from 57-22% Democratic to 42-30%), Smiley was unopposed in 2007. He could have served one more term, but chose to vacate the seat to run for Assessor of Ascension Parish.

New District 

Robust population growth in the Florida Parishes and in Ascension Parish required that districts in the area contract in size. District 88 was 44% over populated, and was the third most populous district in the state. All of Livingston Parish was removed and placed in neighboring districts. In Ascension, the district was shifted westward all the way to LA 44, and the district also picked up most of the city of Gonzales as well. These changes caused the black population to increase from 5 to 9%, and the Republican voting preference of the district was slightly diluted as well. However, Democratic voter registration is well below 50% (in the newly drawn district, Democrats only lead 44-28%), so we expect that a Republican shouldn’t have too much trouble getting elected here.