Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 48

Incumbent – Taylor Barras (R – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

House District 48

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 10576 (60%) 14747 (77%)
Barack Obama (D) 6690 (38%) 4205 (22%)
Others 284 (2%) 315 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 8216 (49%) 6649 (36%)
John Kennedy (R) 8049 (48%) 11357 (62%)
Others 369 (2%) 425 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 6917 (61%) 10029 (73%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 3903 (34%) 3014 (22%)
Others 574 (5%) 692 (5%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 6690 (60%) 9512 (70%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4543 (40%) 3989 (30%)

Current District

Avery Island, Louisiana is best known to the world as being the place where Tabasco sauce is made. It is just down the road from New Iberia, which is where House District 48 is located.

House District 48 is shaped like a crescent and includes both New Iberia and nearby Loreauville along Bayou Teche. Politically, this is a district that votes Republican in national and most statewide races, but in legislative races, Democrats are still potent here. Part of that reason is demographic: the district has a 33% black registration (up from 30% a decade ago), which when combined with a steady supply of locally elected Democrats, keeps Democrats in local control.

The district has had remarkably steady legislative representation: only three Democrats have represented the district since 1972 (only twice since 1987 have Republicans contested this district, and each time, they fell short of 40% of the vote). “Bo” Ackal served from 1972 until his resignation in 1996 to serve as a special assistant under former Governor Mike Foster. Ackal was succeeded in a special election by Errol Romero, who served from 1996 until he was term limited out in 2007.

In the open seat election in 2007, four Democrats sought the seat, and the victor, banker Taylor Barras (who was endorsed by LABI), won in the runoff with 62%. His victory was clinched by carrying conservative precincts by better than 2 to 1 margins, while getting about 35% of the black vote. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) He is allowed to serve two more terms, and several weeks before qualifying, he switched to the Republican Party, which probably was “re-election insurance” – he was unopposed in 2011.

New District

While most of Acadiana had healthy population growth, District 48 was 7% under populated. That, combined with presumption that a new black majority district needed to be drawn somewhere in Acadiana, contributed to a fairly significant reconfiguration of the district lines. Three major adjustments were made that reduced the black voting population from 33 to 15%: (1) the addition of a portion of southeast Lafayette Parish (as well as a precinct in St Martin Parish) that includes Broussard and Youngsville – this area is 14% black and favored David Vitter over Charlie Melancon 74-21%; (2) the removal of precincts in the center of New Iberia for the new black majority district – these precincts are 62% black and voted for Charlie Melancon 65-30%; (3) a piece of territory to the west and south of New Iberia was added connecting the existing district to Lafayette Parish – this area is 17% black, and favored David Vitter 68-28%.

(UPDATED 8/12/2011)  The sum total of these changes creates a district tailor made for a Republican. Though Rep. Barras ran with business support in his 2007 race, the political reality is that Republicans were victorious in four out of four special elections in the area since November 2010. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) Between that reality and the new complexion of the district, Rep. Barras decided to switch parties – this change helped him escape opposition in 2011 and, unless political opinion changes, should make him a safe bet for re-election into the future.