Decision 2016: Cruz collapse, and Sanders shocker in Indiana

(UPDATED 5/4 PM) The Presidential race has come to its conclusion on the Republican side, as Ted Cruz’s disappointing showing in Indiana (combined with seven wins in a row by Donald Trump with more than 50% of the vote) caused him (and, one day later, John Kasich) to exit the race fairly quickly after the polls closed. Meanwhile, Democrats have still not settled on Hillary Clinton as its nominee, as Bernie Sanders scored an upset win. We will discuss each party’s primaries below:

Democratic contest

Logically, Democrats should by now be coalescing behind Hillary Clinton as their nominee, but Democratic primary voters in Indiana had other ideas. In an upset similar to Michigan’s, Bernie Sanders has upset Hillary Clinton 53-47%, with victories in nearly every county.

Democratic turnout was mediocre: while the Clinton/Obama contest brought 1.3 million voters to participate in the Democratic primary, it is estimated that Democratic turnout tonight will only be about 630k – or a 50% drop in turnout relative to 2008.

Even though Hillary can run in general election mode, the fact that Bernie Sanders has residual strength means she has another month of campaigning before she can solely focus on Donald Trump.

Republican contest

The April 19 New York primary for the first time established Donald Trump as the dominant candidate in the Republican field with his overwhelming 60% win. Then his overwhelming wins in five “Northeastern Super Tuesday” primaries last Tuesday further reinforced his position. And tonight, his 53-37% victory over Ted Cruz knocked both Cruz and Kasich out of the race, thus ending the contest.

While Cruz’s third place victories over the past two weeks prevented him from being considered as a legitimate opponent to Donald Trump, he further harmed his candidacy by his “non-aggression pact” with John Kasich for remaining primary states (only Cruz seriously competed in Indiana). Similarly, his announcement of Carly Fiorina as his running mate failed to move the needle.

Indiana was yet another state where Republican turnout surged: while 413K voted in 2008 (and 654K voted in 2012), it is estimated that Republican turnout will be 1.1 million, or 63% of the total primary vote.

While Donald Trump now has a clear path to the Republican nomination, it ill be interesting to see to what extent there is a residual “anti-Trump” vote in remaining primaries.

Looking ahead

There are nine contests remaining: Nebraska and West Virginia vote next week, followed by Oregon (May 17), Washington state (May 24), and the final “Super Tuesday” on June 7 (California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota).