Part 1: Summary Statistics

• President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove)
• Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 43-42% Republican (was 43-42% Republican)
• Congressional retirements (including defeats): 62 (51 in the House and 11 in the Senate)
• Congressional Primary defeats: 9 (8 in the House and 1 in the Senate)

 Part 2: Projections (based on average of last 30 days of polling where states have held their primaries)

US Senate: 49 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 1 Independent, 3 Tossups (was 49-47-1 Democrat in last scorecard)

• Projected Republican gains in Nebraska and North Dakota
• Republican held seat in Indiana too close to call (Republican incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada has pulled into a narrow 3 point lead, which takes his seat out of “tossup” status – for now)
• Democratic held seats in Montana and Virginia too close to call
• Republican held seat in Maine has an Independent in the race who is staying above 55% in polling
• (Note: 15 out of 33 Senate contests have not yet had their party primaries, so we are not in a position to call those races).

Governor: 30 Republicans, 10 Democrats, 1 Independent (was 30-19 Republican in last scorecard)

• Projected Republican gain in North Carolina
• (Note: 5 out of 11 Governor’s races do not have the party nominees selected yet, so we are not in a position to call those races).

Part 3: How we call a state – President, Governor, Senate

We believe that the best way to make our state by state calls in the Presidential race is to look at the actual percentage President Obama is receiving in the polls (and NOT the margin by which President Obama leads (or trails) Mitt Romney in any poll). There is a simple reason for this: when you’re talking about a controversial incumbent, those who are not explicitly supporting him in the polls will almost certainly end up voting for Romney on Election Day. Therefore, we have been compiling poll results by state and taking the average of that state’s poll results for the last 30 days. In the process of doing so, we have also considered Obama’s 2008 showing as a yardstick. Here are our criteria (which will be similar for statewide races for Governor or Senator):

(1) Safe Democratic/Obama or safe Republican/Romney (dark blue/red) – if no polls have been conducted within the last 30 days for that state, a 2008 Obama (or McCain) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Romney) average of 50% or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Obama or lean Republican/Romney (light blue/red) – if no polls have been conducted within the last 30 days for that state, a 2008 Obama (or McCain) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Romney) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of 3 or more points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – if there was polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2008 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or McCain) receiving 52% or less;

(4) Senate/gubernatorial primary has not been held yet (or, no polls have been publicly released) (gray)

(5) No Senate/gubernatorial race in 2012 for this state (black)

Part 4: Presidential Scorecard (270 electoral votes required to win): Obama 264, Romney 191, Undecided 83 (prior scorecard: 264-191 Obama)

Presidential election as of July 19

Senate races as of July 19

Governor’s races as of July 19

Curiously, we made no changes in our ratings this week, even though there were about 20 statewide polls for President that were released this past week. This lack of movement was similarly echoed in President Obama’s approval ratings and the Generic (Democratic/Republican) Congressional vote. This despite the attacks on Mitt Romney over his business record and his tax returns. Of course, President Obama hardly had an error free week. His remark that entrepreneurs didn’t build their businesses was one of those remarks that was immediately seized upon by Mitt Romney and the Republicans. And this remark, like the Supreme Court healthcare ruling, have the potential of painting an unfavorable picture of the President with swing voters.

While we did not change our ratings in any state, it’s worth noting that President Obama’s leads in Ohio and Colorado (which we moved to “Lean Democratic” last week) dropped from 6 to 4 percentage points – almost enough to make these “tossup” states again. Even more noteworthy was that in both states, the polling average is only 47-43% in the President’s favor – hardly a comfortable margin.

We believe that not much is likely to change with the Presidential contest in the short term. The upcoming Summer Olympics will consume much of the public’s attention for the next few weeks (unless Romney choses his Vice Presidential nominee before then). That leaves the Republican convention (which lasts from August 27^th to the 30^th) as the next time to make an impression on voters before the Democrats hold their convention on September 3-6.

However, we have maintained all along that the detailed polling data on a state by state basis shows weak spots for the Obama campaign, as he has lost a consistent amount of support relative to his 2008 showing.

In the “solid Obama” (dark blue) states that have conducted polling, Obama’s average share of the vote relative to 2008 has dropped from 60 to 53% – a 7% “plunge.” This dilution of support won’t affect Obama’s chances in these states (which collectively cast 201 electoral votes), but if this amount of “plunge” were to happen in more marginal states, the President would be in trouble.

In fact, this “plunge” shows up again in the “lean Obama” (light blue) states – in this category (worth 63 electoral votes), President Obama’s showing in the polls relative to 2008 has plunged from 54 to 48%. When you consider that Mitt Romney has taken a heavy pounding on the airwaves in these states, yet he is only 5 points behind an incumbent President, you can see that Obama has real troubles on his hands, because inevitably, Romney/Republican groups will air their own attack ads.

The situation is similarly dire for President Obama in the “tossup states”: his “plunge” in these states is from 53 to 46%, and Romney is averaging 45%. Obviously, some of these states (worth 83 electoral votes) will move into the “leans Republican” category at some point.

Finally, in the states that are leaning or solidly Republican, the “Obama plunge” for states conducting polling is from 43 to 38%. Of course, these states are not likely to be contested anyway, and pollsters therefore are not likely to be doing much polling here.

Since we believe that most of those not explicitly for Obama will likely break towards Mitt Romney in the end, if we were to assume that the states where Obama is not polling at least 50% are Romney states, he (Romney) could receive up to 321 electoral votes (270 required to win). This number is down from last week’s 341 electoral vote projection, because recent polling has put President Obama at 49% in Maine, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Unless new polling in those states shows a dilution in President Obama’s support there, we believe he could get just enough undecided votes to cross the 50 percent mark.

Part 5: Primary Results/Upcoming Events

The only statewide races this month are on July 31: Georgia holds its primary (and Texas is conducting its runoff) on the same day. After that, there will be a “sprint to the finish”, as 18 states hold their primaries in rapid fire succession between August and early September. The last state to hold its primaries (Louisiana) will do so on the same day that voters in all 50 states will be choosing their President.