Presidential – (1144 delegates to win) Romney 107, Santorum 45, Gingrich 32, Ron Paul 9, Huntsman 2, Perry 2

Presidential Contest (Romney = blue, Santorum = pink, Gingrich = red)

The Republican Presidential contest is back to square one, so to speak.  Despite the fact that three of the four contests held this past week were in states Mitt Romney carried in his 2008 Presidential quest, he only managed to carry Nevada, and even then, he essentially matched his 2008 showing.

What happened? It’s likely that three events shaped the outcome of last night’s contests: (1) Republican caucus/primary voters are not yet willing to end the nomination contest; (2) the continuing salvos Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have launched against each other have turned Republican voters against both candidates, and Rick Santorum was, in a sense, a “none of the above” (and safer) alternative; (3) recently issued federal regulations requiring that birth control be covered as part of a health insurance package for church affiliated employers undoubtedly stirred up conservative anger against Obamacare, and Santorum, as a vocal pro-life Catholic, was in an obvious position to benefit. Let’s recap the four contests:

Nevada: Mitt Romney swept the state except for three counties. He received 50%, Newt Gingrich 21%, Ron Paul 19%, and Rick Santorum 10%. While Romney’s showing was impressive (and, at the time the caucus was held, the Nevada win and the Florida win a week prior made him appear unstoppable), turnout was 26% less than it was in the 2008 contest, and his 50% showing was slightly less than the 51% of the vote he received in 2008 in a more crowded field.

Missouri: Rick Santorum 55%, Mitt Romney 25%, and Ron Paul 12%. This was a quirky contest because Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot, and the primary was essentially a “beauty contest” (in other words, no delegates were awarded based on the vote). Still, the fact that Santorum carried every county (including the more moderate Saint Louis suburbs) was impressive. And again, Romney’s 25% showing was less than the 29% he received in 2008. While turnout was 59% less than it was in 2008, it’s also worth noting that this was a non-binding contest without one of the major candidates (Gingrich) on the ballot.

Minnesota (95% reporting): Rick Santorum 45%, Ron Paul 27%, Mitt Romney 17%, and Newt Gingrich 11%.  This was yet another black eye for Mitt Romney. A state that gave him 41% of the vote against four opponents in 2008 only gave him 17% of the vote this time. Even the more moderate Minneapolis/Saint Paul metro area voted for Santorum, who swept the state except for a handful of rural counties that supported Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich’s 11% showing was similarly unimpressive, although in the context of the contests that have been held so far, the Gingrich brand of conservative does not seem to appeal to voters in northern states: his 11% is similar to the 13% he received in Iowa and the 9% he received in New Hampshire. Finally, turnout was also 24% less than it was in 2008.

Colorado: Rick Santorum 40%, Mitt Romney 35%, Newt Gingrich 13%, Ron Paul 12%. Similarly, another black eye for Romney: He received 60% of the vote here in 2008, and while in 2012 he carried most of the Denver suburbs and some scattered rural counties near Utah (where presumably there was a concentration of Mormons), Santorum was nevertheless competitive even in those areas. And just like Minnesota, Colorado was similarly inhospitable to Newt Gingrich – thus far, Newt’s strength has been limited to areas of the Deep South with a large percentage of native Southerners. Turnout was 7% less than it was in 2008.

So what lies ahead? Now that two states supposedly friendly to Romney swung sharply against him (at least in last night’s contests, anyway), the media spotlight will likely shine on Santorum now that he has established his viability by sweeping three states with different demographics and with limited funds. This, in turn, means that in the short term, any pressure for Santorum to withdraw has suddenly vanished. It also means that the “inevitability cloak” that Romney may have had has similarly vanished.

While the Maine caucuses will likely show a Romney win this Saturday (Ron Paul is investing some time there, however), there will be little to contradict the “Santorum is a contender” narrative until (1) the February 22 debate, or (2) the February 28 primaries in Arizona and Michigan. After those contests, Washington State has its caucuses on March 3. That will be the backdrop for the March 6 “Super Tuesday” contests.

As a final note, the fact that the Missouri contest was non-binding limited the delegates that Santorum could have racked up last night, but he nevertheless has moved into second place in the “race for delegates.” And it’s important to reiterate that delegate count, like electoral votes, is one number that ultimately matters.

Congressional/Statewide contests

Thus far, there has been little action in this arena: the first Congressional/statewide contest isn’t until Ohio’s primary on March 6. There were two more Congressional retirements from North Carolina: two term Democratic incumbent Heath Shuler and nine term Republican incumbent Sue Myrick. Shuler’s retirement was likely a result of a competitive 2010 contest, combined with an unfavorable Congressional map drawn for him by the Republican dominated legislature. This brings the “retirement count” to 37 House members (22 Democrats and 15 Republicans) and 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans).

There were no states that have concluded Congressional qualifying since the last write up. Kentucky had a February 7 filing deadline, but there has been no agreement between either legislative chamber (each party controls a chamber) on the new Congressional maps, so it’s likely that filing will have to be reopened whenever the new Congressional maps are signed into law. Similarly, the lack of Congressional maps in Texas due to protracted litigation has already imperiled not only its February 1 filing deadline, but the April 3 primary date as well.

Overall, Congressional filing has concluded in seven states, although we know that Republicans are guaranteed five House seats, while Democrats are guaranteed three. While the filing deadlines for Kentucky and Texas are up in the air, filing concludes February 10 in Indiana, February 14 in Pennsylvania, and February 29 in North Carolina.

Finally, the Republican quest to retake the Senate got a bit of boost when in Nebraska, former Senator Bob Kerrey (who lives in New York) decided against running for his old seat. He was likely the strongest candidate the Democrats could have run there.