Presidential

Even though (from a delegate count perspective, anyway), the Republican Presidential race is only 6% “complete”, the conclusion of the Florida primary is a signal that the nomination contest has entered into a new phase. This is because Florida was the first contest in which the Republican electorate was a mosaic of different ethnicities and ideologies (southerners in the Panhandle, Midwestern retirees along the southwestern Gulf Coast, northeastern retirees along the Atlantic coast, young families in Central Florida, and staunchly anti-Communist Cubans in Miami) dispersed across 10 media markets.

This challenge put a premium on having a well-tuned campaign organization, and in that context, Mitt Romney was firing on all cylinders. He swept the state 46-32% over his chief rival Newt Gingrich (Rick Santorum received 13%, and Ron Paul got 7%), and this win was even bigger than the 39% he received in New Hampshire. This was a broad based victory for Romney. As expected, he swept South Florida (which is electorally dominated by Cubans and northeastern retirees) 56-28% over Newt Gingrich. However, Central Florida (with its younger population drawn to the area by employment opportunities) also preferred Romney by an unambiguous 47-32% margin. But what really hurt Gingrich was the vote in the northern part of the state. This region has a Deep South atmosphere and several large military installations, but Newt was only able to eke out a miniscule 39-38% lead over Romney. In fact, it was only in the smaller rural counties that Gingrich was able to show much strength, and that strong showing basically mirrored the South Carolina reults.

As a side note, there are two features about the Florida vote which were not present in the first three contests: (1) turnout actually decreased 15% compared to the similarly decisive 2008 Republican primary, and (2) there was a heavy early vote – it was estimated that over 600K cast their ballots before last night’s vote, meaning that about 3/8 of the voters were making decisions based on events occurring last week.

Looking ahead, “Super Tuesday” is five weeks away on March 6, but the eight upcoming contests (only three of which have delegates tied to the outcome) are tilted towards Mitt Romney. For one thing, none of these states are Southern accented, and this demographic reality helps Romney and hurts Gingrich. Ironically, the one state (Missouri) where Gingrich could have competed in its non-binding February 7 “beauty contest” (Mike Huckabee lost the state by 9,000 votes in the 2008 primary) is out of his reach, since he is not on the ballot there). Furthermore, there will only be one debate (on February 22), so Gingrich will have the additional challenge of getting his message across in unfriendly terrain.

Which leaves us with the question: will there be any candidate withdrawals in the near future to shake up the race further? It’s highly unlikely that Ron Paul will drop out, and Newt Gingrich has indicated that he intends to go the distance. That leaves Rick Santorum, but the fact that he, unlike Gingrich, is on the ballot in Missouri means that he essentially becomes the “anti-Romney” in that contest. So even though presently Santorum is the weakest candidate based on his post Iowa showings, if he can be competitive in upcoming contests (especially in Missouri), his presence (and the accompanying media attention) may keep the Republican race in turmoil, thus enabling Romney to remain above the fray and repeat the “inevitability” argument that he initially brought up in his victory speech last night.

Therefore, the shape of the Republican field will be something we will be continuously analyzing. With the Nevada caucuses this Saturday (Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri are next Tuesday), we think that the outcomes will create a “bandwagon effect” of sorts, as the winner of those contests will enjoy the media spotlight, with nothing (other than a February 11 Maine “straw poll”) to contradict that spotlight until the Arizona and Michigan contests on February 28.

Congressional/Statewide contests

Even though “Congressional primary season” doesn’t commence until Ohio’s March 6 primary (Texas’ primary got moved back to at least April 3 due to redistricting litigation), there was a special Congressional election in Oregon last night. The result was not much in doubt: a district in Democratic hands since 1975 that gave Barack Obama 61% of the vote and John Kerry 55% elected Democrat Suzanne Bonamici by a 54-40% margin. This is very similar to the 2010 results, when the disgraced Democrat incumbent who resigned was re-elected 55-42% against the same Republican opponent.

Voter turnout was, for a Congressional special election, a respectable 50% (Oregon conducts its election using mail in ballots), and several things can be extracted from these results: (1) the Pacific Northwest has become increasingly hostile territory for Republicans – even in a bad economy in a relatively affluent district; (2) while there was an “Obama Plunge” (explained here) of 7%, that level of decline in Democratic support is probably not enough for the Republican nominee to feel good about his chances in Oregon, Washington, or California this fall. We noticed a similar level of Democratic sentiment in a special election in Los Angeles, California last year.  

(UPDATE  2/2/2012 AM) Since the South Carolina primary, fling for Congressional races has concluded in West Virginia, and the next deadline is Kentucky (which was moved back to February 7). There have been no big surprises, although in North Carolina, the governor and one of the congressmen (both Democrats) decided against running for re-election. That, combined with the retirement of 30 year Republican veteran Dan Burton (R-Indiana), means that there are 35 House members (21 Democrats and 14 Republicans) not running again, while 9 Senators (7 Democrats and 2 Republicans) have decided to retire. Thus far (with Congressional qualifying completed in six states), we know that 5 seats are guaranteed to elect a Democrat, while 3 seats have already elected a Republican.

(UPDATE 2/2/2012 AM)  In conclusion, this will be a relatively quiet month, as the February Presidential contests are front and back loaded, while there are no Congressional primaries, and only four states (North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, and Pennsylvania) have filing deadlines for Congressional races.