At this point in the Presidential race, there appears to be an inconsistency between what the national polls and the state by state polls are saying. The weighted average of polls taken over the last 10 days shows President Obama with a narrow 46-45% lead over Mitt Romney, while the average of state by state [...]
Archive | July, 2012
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s July 26 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 43-41% Republican (was 43-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 62 (51 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 9 (8 in the House and 1 in the [...]
Decision 2012 – “swing state” voter registration (Part 2 of 2)
In a previous installment of this analysis, we analyzed voter registration changes in Florida, Colorado, and Iowa from 2008-2012. In this article, we will examine Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Decision 2012 – “swing state” voter registration (Part 1 of 2)
If you really want to understand underlying voter sentiments in any Presidential election season, polling is a quick and easy way to get that snapshot. However, there is a fair amount of subjectivity inherent in any poll, and variables like the person/firm conducting the polling, the timing of the poll, and similar considerations can affect [...]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s July 19 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 43-42% Republican (was 43-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 62 (51 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 9 (8 in the House and 1 in the [...]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s July 12 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 43-42% Republican (was 43-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 62 (51 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 9 (8 in the House and 1 in the [...]
Decision 2012 – JMCEL’s July 3 Presidential scorecard
Part 1: Summary Statistics President Obama job approval – last 30 days: 47-49% approve/disapprove (was 47-49% approve/disapprove) Generic Congressional Vote – last 30 days: 43-42% Republican (was 44-42% Republican) Congressional retirements (including defeats): 62 (51 in the House and 11 in the Senate) Congressional Primary defeats: 9 (8 in the House and 1 in the [...]