Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 14 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, an Obama (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of 3 or more points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of June 19

2012 Election: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

6/19/2016: Hillary Clinton – 224, Donald Trump 191, Undecided 123 (no change since last week)

Presidential race as of June 19

Context is everything when analyzing the Presidential contest. From last week’s news stories, the dominant narrative is that Donald Trump is self-destructing, and that a potential revolt from the party faithful is underway at the Republican convention. However, an examination of available polling data shows that while the race (from a national perspective) has slightly moved towards Hillary, the race is far from over, provided that Trump can establish affirmative reasons for people to vote for him.

At the national level, Hillary Clinton’s 41-38% over Donald Trump a week ago has expanded to 42-36% (with 9% supporting the Libertarian and 4% supporting the Green Party candidate), although it’s important to understand that the Presidential contest is a 50 state contest for purposes of determining the winner. And at the state level, very little has changed from the few polls that have been publicly released: strong Democratic/Republican states seem to be following a predictable pattern (even considering how close the race is in Utah), while in five swing states with recently released polling, the race in each state is three points or less, meaning that this race hasn’t turned into a blowout.

Furthermore, the underlying atmospherics of the election cycle have been mixed so far: President Obama’s 51-46% approval rating is unchanged from last week, although voters are very unhappy (by a 66-26% margin) with the direction of the country, and Congressional job at approval (at 75-13% negative) isn’t much better.

Two pieces of unfavorable news coverage against the Trump campaign that do have some impact, however, are reports of disarray in the Trump campaign, as well as “establishment” Republicans vocally expressing discomfort with their nominee. While this doesn’t matter to rank and file voters, disengaged Republican professionals could have an impact on contributions, which provides the fuel Trump needs to get his message out, particularly in swing states where the “heavy shelling” from Clinton and related Democratic friendly groups has already begun. A lack of response to these one sided attacks can prevent Trump (as it did Romney in 2012, John Kerry in 2004, and Michael Dukakis in 1988) from getting enough momentum to carry those states.

In conclusion, polling from the past week shows a “split decision”; while Donald Trump has gotten bad publicity and hasn’t shown movement in the polls, the slight advantage Hillary Clinton has had since wrapping up the nomination hasn’t materially changed to a substantial advantage. In other words, the 2016 Presidential contest has a long way to go.