Introduction – How JMC Analytics and Polling calls a state

(1) Safe Democratic/Clinton or safe Republican/Trump (dark blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Obama (or Romney) percentage of 60% or above gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average of 50% (or at least a 10-point lead in the polls) or more gets this classification;

(2) Lean Democratic/Clinton or lean Republican/Trump (light blue/red) – If no polls have been conducted within the last 7 days for that state, a 2012 Clinton (or Trump) percentage between 53-59% gets this rating. If polls have been conducted, a Clinton (or Trump) average percentage of 49% or less with a lead of between 3-10 points will get this classification;

(3) Tossup (yellow) – If there was any polling done, a candidate leads by less than 3 points or the 2012 election results had the winning candidate (Obama or Romney) receiving 52% or less;

Presidential Scorecard as of October 16

2012 Electoral Vote: Barack Obama – 332, Mitt Romney 206

Current Electoral Vote (based on last 7 days’ polling): Hillary Clinton – 298, Donald Trump 186, Undecided 54

• Moved Michigan from “Leans Clinton” to “Solid Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Florida and Maine from “Tossup” to “Leans Clinton” since the last scorecard;
• Moved North Carolina from “Leans Clinton” to Tossup” since the last scorecard;
• Moved Montana from “Leans Trump” to “Solid Trump” since the last scorecard;

Presidential Scorecard as of October 16

Is Donald Trump finished ? His campaign (with sexual harassment allegations accumulating daily) has had a week that would flatten most candidates for public office. Still, despite all that hit him last week, the numbers didn’t change that much. Only three states (Florida, Maine, and North Carolina) changed candidate preferences, with the net effect being a bit of “padding of the margin” for Hillary Clinton. However, considering the pounding he has taken, there has not been a substantial shifting of the electorate: JMC calculates that the gain to the Clinton campaign this past week was about two percentage points: she went from 45-43 to 46-42% in the average of polling taken nationally over the past seven days. And while the numbers haven’t changed, voters aren’t flocking towards an alternative candidate like Libertarian Gary Johnson: after peaking at 9% support on the September 11 scorecard, he is now polling at 7%, which is a half-point drop relative to last week.

Obviously, the final Clinton/Trump debate on Wednesday night becomes that much more important. Because it’s imperative (from Trump’s perspective) to halt any further erosion, since he’s not that far behind: currently, Hillary Clinton’s lead in two states (Colorado and Florida) is five points or less. If Trump can flip those states, that brings Clinton’s electoral vote total to just under 270 (the number she needs to be elected President). In other words, media reports that this has become a blowout race aren’t supported by polling data.

The debate is crucial for another reason: early voting is underway (and is about to accelerate in another week), and at least 1.4 million have already early voted. And as people are early voting, they’re likely forming their impressions on the actions by either candidate on the campaign trail (in person early voting in Louisiana commences on October 25).

In conclusion, the last several weeks have not been good to Donald Trump, but he’s not out of the running at this point.