Decision 2015: JMCEL’s “bite sized politics” (House District 57)

INCUMBENT: Randal Gaines (Democrat)

DESCRIPTION: House District 57 is located in the River Parishes and was drawn to be a black majority district. It contains most of St John Parish except for parts of LaPlace, Garyville, and Reserve. The district also travels into St Charles Parish, and takes in black neighborhoods in Luling and Boutte.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

District Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 69% Democratic

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: While most of Louisiana has been trending towards the Republicans, House District 57 has been moving steadily towards the Democrats because of changing demographics in and around LaPlace. Before reapportionment, the district was located along the Westbank of St James and St John Parishes, and over the past decade, it saw its black voter registration increase from 37 to 46%. It even briefly elected a Republican (Nickie Monica) in 2007 when the seat opened up due to term limits. However, this was not a seat that was safe for a Republican incumbent: Barack Obama carried this district 52-47% in 2008, while David Vitter in his 2010 race only received 44% of the vote. Reapportionment removed the St James precincts, as well as some white neighborhoods in St John Parish, while adding black precincts in St Charles Parish. These changes transformed the district from one that was mildly Democratic to a solidly Democratic one (in fact, Obama in 2012 carried the district 68-31%, while Mary Landrieu received 74% of the district vote last year), and Rep. Monica decided not to seek re-election. He was succeeded by Democrat Randal Gaines, who won the runoff by an unambiguous 69-31% margin. Historically, this district tends to re-elect its incumbents without incident, which, combined with continuing demographic changes, means that Rep. Gaines (who is allowed to serve two more terms) should not have re-election problems.