Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 98

Incumbent – Neil Abramson (D – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

House District 98

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 3385 (29%) 6646 (30%)
Barack Obama (D) 8271 (70%) 15338 (68%)
Others 189 (2%) 497 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 8817 (76%) 16335 (75%)
John Kennedy (R) 2560 (22%) 5024 (23%)
Others 190 (2%) 554 (3%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 2511 (32%) 4771 (32%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 4952 (64%) 9789 (65%)
Others 274 (4%) 528 (4%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 2941 (38%) 5649 (37%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4836 (62%) 9458 (63%)

Current District

House District 98 is an elongated district which starts in Uptown near Audubon Park and includes some of the wealthier neighborhoods nearby. The district then travels down Claiborne Avenue towards the Louisiana Superdome, and as it is doing so, it also includes some neighborhoods adjacent to the Superdome along Tulane Avenue. 

Like several districts in the Garden District or Uptown, the district has seen significant demographic changes in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. A decade ago, the district had a 57% black voter registration; today, the district is 49% black. This change is due to a 9% decrease in the number of white voters since 2003, while the number of black voters has decreased 35% during that same time period.

Like most districts in the city of New Orleans, this is a solidly Democratic district, because you have a formidable white liberal voting bloc in the neighborhoods near Tulane and Loyola, which when combined with the black population creates an electorate where Democratic candidates can count on 3 to 1 margins. 

Even though District 98 has been a New Orleans based district for some time, it technically was newly created after the 2001 reapportionment; before that, it was a racially mixed district based in Gentilly that elected Democrat Garey Forster from 1982 (he switched to the Republican Party in 1984) until his appointment as Secretary of Labor in 1997. As time went on, his Republican Party label became a liability in the district, as the increasing black percentages in Gentilly provided a base of support for a Democratic opponent. In fact, when the seat opened up in 1997, Democratic former Lt. Governor Melinda Schwegmann defeated a Republican with 63% in the primary. She served from 1997 until 2003, when she vacated the seat to run for Lt. Governor, and before she qualified for the race, she also switched to the Republican Party.

Shwegmann’s departure was one that was well timed, as her district was eliminated in redistricting and relocated to the Uptown area. In the 2003 election under the new lines, black Democrat Cheryl Gray defeated a Republican with 60% of the vote. She only served for a term, since there was a term limited state senator (Diana Bajoie) in the area.

In the race to succeed Rep. Gray, two Democrats and three Republicans sought the open seat, as the post Katrina electorate in the district was one where Republicans thought they had a chance to win (in fact, in the low turnout Secretary of State’s race the previous year, Republican Jay Dardenne received 61% of the district vote). However, the fact that you had two Republicans splitting a relatively small GOP voter base meant that two Democrats ended up making the runoff. The frontrunner was Democratic attorney Neil Abramson, who was white. He received 43% in the primary and 74% in the runoff against a black candidate. It didn’t hurt that he received over 90% of the white vote, but his ability to attract black votes (he received 32% of the black vote) was why his runoff victory was as one sided as it was. He is allowed to serve two more terms. 

New District

Hurricane Katrina created a situation where you had massive population losses that required considerable adjustment of the district lines in New Orleans. Making matters more complicated was that you had three formerly black majority districts in the Garden District and Uptown that were now represented by white Democrats. It also didn’t help that District 91 was 30% under populated. Walker Hines’ retirement (he represented District 95) minimized the carnage, as his district was eliminated, and its whiter precincts were absorbed by District 98. The other district (District 91, represented by Walt Leger) was redrawn to have a black majority, which meant that you had precinct trading between District 91 and District 98 to help accomplish that demographic goal.

As a result of these changes, you now have a more compact district that is located squarely in Uptown between Napoleon, the Orleans/Jefferson Parish boundary, and Claiborne Avenue. This newest incarnation of District 98 has a 27% black voter registration. Though this would seem to create a district more competitive for Republicans (and, in fact, you did GOP legislative representation here back in the 1980s), Uptown New Orleans has plenty of white liberals to spare, and this is likely to remain a heavily Democratic district for some time to come, albeit one that is now pretty much guaranteed to elect a white Democrat.