Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 92

Incumbent – Tom Willmott (R – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

 

House District 92

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 7461 (48%) 9237 (51%)
Barack Obama (D) 7944 (51%) 8473 (47%)
Others 196 (1%) 240 (1%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 9528 (64%) 10563 (61%)
John Kennedy (R) 5082 (34%) 6328 (37%)
Others 312 (2%) 366 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 4464 (47%) 5603 (51%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 4422 (47%) 4759 (43%)
Others 544 (6%) 616 (6%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 4440 (48%) 5601 (52%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4861 (52%) 5232 (48%)

Current District

While the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish (Metairie and Kenner) is thought of as predominately Republican, there are precincts here and there with enough blacks and blue-collar voters for Democrats to be competitive. House District 92 is one of those areas. It generally includes Kenner south of Esplanade Boulevard and its more Democratic neighborhoods around the New Orleans airport.

This is an area with a substantial black minority (39% of registered voters, which is up from 35% a decade ago) which, when combined with blue collar Democrats, votes about 50/50 in recent elections, although Senator Mary Landrieu has always run strongly here.

In legislative elections, this is an area that re-elects its incumbents with little incident, although it was one of several open seats in 2007 that the GOP captured. Between 1986 and 2007, it was represented by Democrat Glenn Ansardi, who in his lengthy tenure was only opposed once for re-election, in 1991.

Rep. Ansardi was term-limited in 2007, and three candidates (two Republicans and a black Democrat) sought the seat. This was a case where low Democratic turnout clearly helped the Republicans, as only 28% of the electorate (as opposed to 37% of the voters in 2007) in the primary were black, thus enabling the two Republicans to make the runoff. The front runner, attorney Tom Willmott, finished first in the primary with 46% of the vote, including approximately 40% of the vote in the black precincts. Once the lone Democrat in the race endorsed Willmott in the runoff (as did many Kenner elected officials), the election was essentially over. Willmott swept to victory in the runoff with 65% of the vote, with about 70% in the black neighborhoods and 60% in the white precincts. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) Rep. Willmott is allowed to serve two more terms, and was unopposed in 2011.

New District

House District 92 was in a unique situation with regards to reapportionment. It was 8% under populated, and with population losses in Orleans/Jefferson/St. Bernard, it could have been eliminated, except for one thing: there was no way you could easily reconfigure the district into one with a black majority. Instead, the district added more Republican territory along Esplanade and in St. Charles Parish (a single precinct to the west of the airport was added). The added territory was 5% black, and voted 73-22% for David Vitter. These added precincts decreased the black voter registration from 39 to 35%. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) Rep. Willmott escaped opposition in 2011, but continuing demographic changes in the district will certainly keep this district on the Democrats’ radar.