Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 30
Incumbent – James Armes (D – Term Limited in 2019)
District Map
House District 30
Vote History
|
2008 President |
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| Current District | New District | |
| John McCain (R) | 7514 (64%) | 7228 (63%) |
| Barack Obama (D) | 4085 (35%) | 4142 (36%) |
| Others | 188 (2%) | 174 (2%) |
|
2008 Senate |
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| Current District | New District | |
| Mary Landrieu (D) | 5161 (47%) | 5084 (48%) |
| John Kennedy (R) | 5324 (49%) | 5170 (48%) |
| Others | 470 (4%) | 442 (4%) |
|
2010 Senate |
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| Current District | New District | |
| David Vitter (R) | 4067 (62%) | 3798 (61%) |
| Charlie Melancon (D) | 1999 (30%) | 1969 (32%) |
| Others | 535 (8%) | 479 (8%) |
|
2010 Lt Governor |
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| Current District | New District | |
| Jay Dardenne (R) | 4026 (62%) | 3747 (61%) |
| Caroline Fayard (D) | 2507 (38%) | 2425 (39%) |
Current District
District 30 is located in Central Louisiana and is shaped like a question mark in reverse. It begins in the northeast corner of Vernon Parish, curves around to go through Leesville and towns immediately to the south. The southern end of the district is in DeRidder in Beauregard Parish, and most of the population lives in Vernon Parish.
The district has a modest 24% black voter registration, which is a slight uptick from 23% a decade ago. This is a district that once was a swing district, but recently has consistently supported Republican candidates with at least 60% of the vote. This Republican trend has somewhat been apparent in legislative elections recently, although Democrats still have been victorious in legislative elections. From 1987 to 2007, Democrat John Smith represented the district. When term limits forced him to retire, he was elected to an open state senate seat that also had an incumbent who was term limited out.
In the open seat race to succeed Rep. Smith, two Republicans and a Democrat sought the seat. Democrat James Armes (who was on the Vernon Parish School Board) led in the primary 49-38% over Republican Jack Causey, and won in the runoff 52-48%, with 57% in Vernon and 42% in Beauregard Parish. Turnout clearly helped the Democrat in this race, as the district’s portion of Beauregard Parish (which voted Republican) cast 37% of the primary vote but only 30% of the vote in the runoff. He is allowed to seek two more terms.
New District
In this part of the state, redistricting wasn’t a big issue. The district was 2% over the “ideal” district population, and the demographics did not support the creation of a new minority district. However, reshuffling of the district lines in Natchitoches and Rapides did have an effect here. Several precinct trades were made with adjacent districts in Vernon Parish that had the effect of smoothing out the district lines: the new district basically follows the path of Highway 171 from Anacoco to the Beauregard Parish line. And in Beauregard, two precincts were traded between District 30 and 32 (represented by Dorothy Sue Hill).
The redrawn district has a black voter registration of 25%, which is a bit higher than it is right now. The more interesting change is that the DeRidder precincts in Beauregard Parish, which once cast 36% of the district vote, now cast 41% of the vote. While Rep. Armes is probably safe in his re-election bid, the advancement of Republicans in rural Louisiana is something he can’t entirely ignore, especially since his Vernon Parish base was slightly diluted.