Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 25

Open Seat (The incumbent is Chris Roy (D))

District Map

House District 25

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 15048 (72%) 15135 (74%)
Barack Obama (D) 5410 (26%) 5042 (25%)
Others 305 (1%) 320 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 7981 (39%) 7634 (38%)
John Kennedy (R) 11868 (58%) 11961 (60%)
Others 508 (3%) 498 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 8962 (67%) 9037 (69%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 3403 (25%) 3120 (24%)
Others 1000 (7%) 999 (8%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 8541 (64%) 8612 (66%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4729 (36%) 4453 (34%)

 Current District

The Alexandria area has been a political paradox; it normally supports Republicans in closely contested statewide races, yet Republicans have made limited headway here in legislative races – from 1999 to 2007, it had the only all-Democratic legislative delegation of any metropolitan area in Louisiana.

One of those Democratic held House districts is District 25. Though it could be characterized as a “suburban district”, it’s more accurate to say that the district is made up of three distinct parts: the western suburban fringe of Alexandria beyond MacArthur Drive, the rural fringes of Rapides immediately to the west and south of the suburban fringe, and (added after the 2000 redistricting) a finger of land in Vernon Parish stretching all the way to the eastern edge of Leesville. It has a modest 18% black voter population, which is up from 16% when the lines were last drawn.

In statewide races, this district consistently supports Republicans, and in recent years, the level of GOP support has strengthened: in statewide races, they can now count on receiving over 60% of the vote (John McCain carried the district with 74% of the vote). However, Republicans have made no headway in legislative races here. This was largely due to the strength of the Democratic incumbents: Charlie DeWitt represented the district with little competition between 1980 and 2008: the closest call he had electorally was 62% of the vote against two opponents in 1987. His stature was enhanced by the fact that he served as the Speaker of the House in the second Foster administration between 2000 and 2004. When term limits forced Rep. DeWitt to retire, three candidates sought to replace him. Logically, this should have been a Republican pickup, and the Republican candidate was attorney Lance Maxwell, who once worked for Senator Vitter. Though Maxwell led in the primary, he lost to Democratic attorney (and the brother of the Mayor of Alexandria) Chris Roy 53-47% in the runoff. This was a broad based victory for Roy: not only did he carry both parishes, but Maxwell only exceeded 55% of the vote in four precincts in Rapides Parish. This situation of narrow Democratic victories in conservative seats played itself out in several other seats in Central Louisiana, resulting in Democrats’ mainitning numerical control of the Louisiana House until very recently.  (7/20/2011 UPDATE) Though Rep. Roy could have served two more terms, he chose to retire.

Proposed District

Unlike prior reapportionment years, slow population growth in central Louisiana did not create reapportionment headaches in this part of the state, thanks to the massive population losses in the New Orleans metropolitan area. In fact, the district was 8% over populated, and had to contract in size. The precincts in Vernon Parish were removed from the district. Three precincts in Alexandria in the southwest portion of the city near Masonic and Horseshoe Drive were also removed and added to District 26 (represented by black Democrat Herbert Dixon). The district also picked up the southern fringe of Rapides Parish around Glenmora and Forest Hill (which had 9% black voter registration). Overall, these changes slightly strengthened the Republican leanings of the district, and reduced the black voter registration from 18 to 16%.  (7/20/2011 UPDATE) With this being an open seat, Republicans should be able to pick up this seat.