Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 20

Incumbent – Noble Ellington (R – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

House District 20

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 13610 (69%) 15147 (72%)
Barack Obama (D) 5811 (29%) 5541 (26%)
Others 284 (1%) 305 (1%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 8032 (42%) 7961 (39%)
John Kennedy (R) 10456 (55%) 11736 (58%)
Others 415 (2%) 464 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 7274 (66%) 8196 (69%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 2958 (27%) 2908 (24%)
Others 730 (7%) 793 (7%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 7179 (66%) 8102 (69%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 3653 (34%) 3673 (31%)

Current District

District 20 is located in northeast Louisiana and contains all of Caldwell, Franklin, Catahoula, and part of Tensas Parish. It has a modest 26% black voter registration, which is about the same as it was when the lines were drawn for the 2003 elections. This is a district that votes heavily Republican in Presidential races, while in state races, what was once a Republican leaning (but swingy) district became solidly Republican by 2010 – it gave Jay Dardenne and David Vitter an unambiguous 66% of the vote in the 2010 elections.

Until recently, this district re-elected Democratic incumbents almost out of habit, with contested races only when there was an open seat. This was the seat that launched the career of the late Secretary of State Fox McKeithen – he served for one term until he was elected to Secretary of State in 1987. Democrat Noble Ellington succeeded him and served for two terms, when he vacated the seat to run successfully for the Senate. Ellington was succeeded by Democrat Lelon Kenney, who served for 12 years, as term limits forced him to retire in 2007.

The race to succeed Rep. Kenney was interesting, because term limits resulted in several representatives seeking open state senate seats. It was much rarer to see a state senator want to return to his old house seat. Ellington, however, was the one success story in that regard, although he only won the runoff with 52%. Curiously, the Republicans did not field a candidate in that election, and this was one of several seats where the Republican’s lack of involvement kept the House in Democratic hands at that time. However, in the aftermath of the 2010 elections, Rep. Ellington switched to the Republican Party. His switch, as well as the switching of several others, gave the Louisiana House a Republican majority for the first time since Reconstruction. Though Rep. Ellington is allowed to serve two more terms, he decided not to run again.

Proposed District

Unlike prior reapportionment years, slow population growth in north Louisiana did not create reapportionment headaches in this part of the state, thanks to the massive population losses in the New Orleans metropolitan area. In fact, the district was 3% under populated, and technically could have been left alone. Additionally, there was not a large minority concentration in the immediate area that would have created pressure to create another black majority district.

In fact, the district was largely untouched during reapportionment, although several changes were made that made the district more Republican. A finger of territory into Jena in La Salle Parish was added to the district, and three black majority precincts in Jonesville in Catahoula Parish were removed, as was a small precinct in black majority Tensas Parish. These tweakings reduced the black voter registration from 26 to 22%. Rep. Ellington should be in decent shape for his re-election, but his 52% runoff victory in 1987 is something he can’t ignore, particularly since he has represented the area since 1987.