Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 57
Incumbent – Nickie Monica (R – Term limited in 2019)
District Map
House District 57
Voting History
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2008 President |
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| Current District | New District | |
| John McCain (R) | 10965 (47%) | 7238 (36%) |
| Barack Obama (D) | 12219 (52%) | 12785 (63%) |
| Others | 334 (1%) | 233 (1%) |
|
2008 Senate |
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| Current District | New District | |
| Mary Landrieu (D) | 14181 (63%) | 13607 (71%) |
| John Kennedy (R) | 7830 (35%) | 5293 (28%) |
| Others | 382 (2%) | 297 (1%) |
|
2010 Senate |
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| Current District | New District | |
| David Vitter (R) | 6304 (44%) | 4248 (34%) |
| Charlie Melancon (D) | 7585 (52%) | 7793 (62%) |
| Others | 580 (4%) | 483 (4%) |
|
2010 Lt Governor |
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| Current District | New District | |
| Jay Dardenne (R) | 6292 (44%) | 4363 (35%) |
| Caroline Fayard (D) | 8115 (56%) | 8118 (65%) |
Current District
The combination of the petrochemical industry and the state’s plantation heritage makes the “River Parishes” a truly unique part of Louisiana. This combination has also created a reliable Democratic stronghold, although those ties have weakened recently. District 57 is a River Parishes district that is located on the east bank of St. James and St. John Parishes. Politically, this is one of a handful of Republican held districts that has been trending significantly in the Democratic direction, as the black voter registration has increased from 37 to 46% since the lines were drawn. As a result of these changes, this was one of three GOP held House seats (the other two were held by Jim Tucker and Walker Hines) that voted for Barack Obama, and the district has not supported a Republican at the top of the ballot since Bobby Jindal’s 2007 race.
However, this Democratic trend had not yet registered in the district’s House representation. It overall tends to support its incumbents, as only three people have represented the district over the last several decades. Furthermore, there have been only three contested elections since 1987: the open seat races in 1995 and 2007, and the 1991 runoff, when former Democratic representative Joe Accardo was held to 54% of the vote.
Rep. Bobby Faucheux (who represented the district between 1995 and 2007) was term limited in 2007. Six candidates sought the seat, with Republican refinery worker and St. John Parish President “Nickie” Monica winning the runoff 57-43%. The increasing strength of the black vote in St. John Parish could have been a problem for Rep. Monica’s re-election, but he chose not to run again.
Proposed District
While population losses weren’t an issue for this district (the population of the district after the Census was 12% over that of the “ideal” district), demographic changes in St John Parish could have made this district an attractive target for the Democrats. Fortunately, the solution was simple: both this district and a neighboring seat held by Norco Democrat Gary Smith (he was term limited) were being vacated. Since that district was 30% black, District 57 was redrawn to be a black majority district (its black voter registration went from 46 to 57% black), while blacks were removed from Rep. Smith’s district to reduce that district’s black voter registration from 30 to 18%.
The new district has been shifted towards the southeast. The St James portion of the district, as well as Garyville and Reserve in St John, were removed – these precincts altogether had a 38% black voter registration. Added to the district was the west bank of St John Parish (90% black voter registration) and St Charles (59% black voter registration) between Edgard and Boutte. These changes overall create a district where the GOP performance in a contested statewide race is typically in the mid 30s. This new district is pretty much guaranteed to elect a Democrat from St John Parish.