Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 52

Incumbent – Gordon Dove (R – Term Limited in 2015)

District Map

House District 52

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 13933 (75%) 13344 (77%)
Barack Obama (D) 4352 (23%) 3644 (21%)
Others 382 (2%) 344 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 7505 (42%) 6740 (40%)
John Kennedy (R) 10054 (56%) 9578 (57%)
Others 468 (3%) 416 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 9188 (71%) 8783 (73%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 3145 (24%) 2730 (23%)
Others 579 (4%) 530 (4%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 9322 (73%) 8915 (75%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 3504 (27%) 3039 (25%)

Current District

House District 52 is shaped like an upside down “U” and includes the central portion of Terrebonne just south of US 90. It also swings over into Lafourche Parish to pick up a single precinct there. The district has a 14% black voter registration that is a slight increase from 12% when the lines were last drawn. 

This district includes the more Republican precincts in Terrebonne Parish. In prior elections, it gave robust margins to Republican Presidential candidates, and more modest margins to statewide GOP candidates. In recent years, the unpopularity of Democrats in the oil patch has shown up in election results here: in 2010, Republican candidates for the Senate, Lt. Governor, and Congress all received over 70% of the vote here.

Like most places outside of Baton Rouge and New Orleans, GOP legislative representation is a more recent phenomenon, however. Democrat Hunt Downer represented the district from 1976 to 2004 with minimal opposition, and he switched to the Republican Party in his last term, perhaps in anticipation of his unsuccessful 2003 run for governor (even though he only received 6% statewide, an impressive 54% of his constituents voted for him). When the seat opened up, the Republican tendencies of the district finally asserted themselves, as the lone Democrat in the race only received 23% of the vote in the primary. The victor, Republican Gordon Dove, prevailed in the runoff by a five vote margin. 

(UPDATED 9/9/2011) Though Rep. Dove was narrowly elected, he was unopposed for re-election both in 2007 and 2011, and is allowed to serve one more term.

New District

Redistricting was relatively simple in Terrebonne Parish, as you had robust population growth (District 52 was 23% over populated) combined with an insufficient black population to draw a black majority district there. What ended up happening was that six precincts were traded: four precincts were traded with District 51 (represented by Republican Joe Harrison) in the southern and western portions of the district. And in central Houma, three precincts were traded with District 53 (represented by term limited Democrat Damon Baldone). These changes reduced the black voter registration from 14 to 12%, and made a safe Republican district a bit safer. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) Republicans shouldn’t have any electoral problems here.