Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 39

Incumbent – Bobby Badon (D – Term Limited in 2019)

District Map

House District 39

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 14971 (65%) 12949 (66%)
Barack Obama (D) 7760 (34%) 6335 (32%)
Others 352 (2%) 308 (2%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 10589 (47%) 8607 (45%)
John Kennedy (R) 11437 (51%) 10111 (53%)
Others 438 (2%) 387 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 9366 (62%) 8094 (63%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 5012 (33%) 4020 (31%)
Others 828 (5%) 760 (6%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 8989 (60%) 7838 (62%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 6067 (40%) 4891 (38%)

Current District

The Almanac of American Politics once noted that voters in South Louisiana were independent in their voting habits: “For years (northern Louisiana) wanted nothing to do with national Democrats, while Cajuns tend to mull it over.” House District 39 is a perfect example of this independent voting streak. It covers most of Lafayette Parish north of I-10 and is centered on the town of Carencro. The district also includes the southern portion of St. Landry Parish along I-49 up to the outskirts of Opelousas, as well as two precincts in northern St. Martin Parish.

Demographically, there is a moderate 24% black voter registration. This is up from 22% when the lines were last drawn, and is due to demographic changes around Carencro. Politically, this is a district that usually votes Republican in statewide races, although voters here have some residual allegiance to Acadiana based Democrats: both former Governor Kathleen Blanco and former Congressman Chris John have run well here.

At the legislative level, this is a district that should be voting Republican, but Democrats have prevailed so far, although since 1991, no one has received more than 60% of the vote in this district. Democrat “La La” Lalonde held the district from 1980 until his 1995 upset by Clara Baudoin. Rep. Baudoin served three terms, but had to struggle to win re-election: in 1999, she received 51% of the runoff vote against former Carencro Mayor Tommy Angelle, while she received a more respectable 59% of the vote in her 2003 re-election.

Rep. Baudoin was term-limited in 2007, and four candidates sought her seat, including former representative Lalonde, who by then had switched to the Republican Party. However, in the runoff, Lalonde lost 48-52% against Democrat Bobby Badon, who was a business man and a Vietnam veteran. Badon was clearly helped by the 54% he received in the Lafayette Parish precincts. (UPDATED 8/3/2011) Though Rep. Badon could have served two more terms, he chose not to seek re-election.

New District

Redistricting in the Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas was relatively painless, as both areas had strong population growth. In Lafayette, this meant that a new black majority district was created along Bayou Teche. District 39 itself was 19% overpopulated, and had to contract in size. The St Martin precincts were removed and placed in District 46 (represented by Republican Mike Huval). Similarly, a portion of St. Landry Parish around Leonville was also transferred over to District 46. In Lafayette Parish, you had a handful of precincts that were traded among three districts:  two Northside precincts between East Pont Des Mouton and Gloria Switch were placed into District 44 (represented by Democrat Rickey Hardy), while three precincts around Scott were picked up from District 31 (represented by Republican Nancy Landry).

The end result of these changes was a district where the black voter registration dropped from 24 to 23%, and the political performance of the district became slightly more Republican. The influence of Lafayette Parish has also increased, from 63 to 78% of voters.

(UPDATED 8/3/2011) This was an iffy district for Democrats even before Rep. Badon decided not to seek re-election. Not only have you had contested elections since 1991, but the Acadiana area has been moving towards the Republicans. This is a district where the Republicans will be in the driver’s seat unless the Democrats have a strong candidate.