Louisiana 2011 Legislative Analysis – House District 66

Incumbent – Hunter Greene (R – Term Limited in 2015)

District Map

House District 66

Vote History

2008 President

  Current District New District
John McCain (R) 11181 (59%) 16187 (77%)
Barack Obama (D) 7594 (40%) 4595 (22%)
Others 253 (1%) 272 (1%)

 

2008 Senate

  Current District New District
Mary Landrieu (D) 9233 (49%) 6470 (31%)
John Kennedy (R) 9185 (49%) 14013 (67%)
Others 315 (2%) 338 (2%)

 

2010 Senate

  Current District New District
David Vitter (R) 7337 (56%) 11471 (72%)
Charlie Melancon (D) 4908 (38%) 3577 (23%)
Others 742 (6%) 777 (5%)

 

2010 Lt Governor

  Current District New District
Jay Dardenne (R) 8405 (65%) 12455 (79%)
Caroline Fayard (D) 4591 (35%) 3389 (21%)

Current District

Many were shocked when the formerly Republican bastion of East Baton Rouge Parish was one of 10 parishes to vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election. This was due to changing demographics in the parish, and a good place to analyze these changes is House District 66.

When the district was initially created in 1971, it was a North Baton Rouge district bordered by Choctaw, Airline Highway, and Scenic Highway. Its population back then was predominately blue-collar white; most of its constituents worked at one of the nearby industrial plants. As time went on, black in-migration, combined with heavy white out-migration, resulted in the district lines shifting steadily to the east and south after the 1981, 1991, and 2001 redistrictings.

Today, the configuration of the district is significantly different than its 1970s configuration –it is now a predominately white-collar district with several affluent neighborhoods. The political heart of the district is in middle to upper middle-class neighborhoods like Sherwood Forest, Broadmoor, Cedarcrest, and Lake Sherwood Acres. Another portion of the district is in middle-class, more blue-collar neighborhoods between Florida and Choctaw like Villa Del Rey and Red Oak. The remaining district population resides in apartments and duplexes near I-12 and Sherwood Forest Boulevard.

Though District 66 has steadily become more white collar and affluent with each redistricting, it has correspondingly seen significant racial change through the years. What was a district that was 16% black by voter registration in 2003 is today a 31% black district, with an additional Asian presence in Sherwood Forest. These changes have occurred throughout the district: in the neighborhoods north of Florida Blvd, a 36% black voter registration in 2003 is now 58%. The precincts near I-12 with a significant apartment population has seen its black voter population increase from 31 to 49%, while in the remainder of the district, the black voter registration has nearly tripled, from 7 to 19%.

These demographic changes have created a noticeable Democratic presence in the district: in the early part of the decade, Republicans could count on 2 to 1 margins here, but now, Democrats can count on about 40% of the vote here – Mary Landrieu even managed to carry the district in 2008 if you factor in the heavily Democratic early vote in 2008 in East Baton Rouge Parish.

While the movement of the district towards the south has resulted in changes with regards to its legislative representation, the demographic changes have not yet made their impact. When the district was a primarily blue collar district north of Florida Boulevard, conservative Democrat “Woody” Jenkins was its representative, and never had re-election worries. However, the 1991 redistricting for the first time gave him staunchly Republican precincts in Sherwood Forest and Broadmoor. Interestingly, he survived his 1991 re-election by outflanking his Republican opponent by running to her right by accusing her of being supported by militant feminists. This political positioning probably helped him receive 49% of the vote in the affluent areas, which when combined with the 62% of the vote he received in the blue-collar precincts north of Florida Boulevard gave him 54% of the vote in the runoff. He understandably switched to the Republican Party three years later and was unopposed for re-election in 1995.

Rep. Jenkins was interested in higher office for some time, however; he ran against incumbent Democratic senators in 1978 and 1980 and received 40% of the vote each time. He then ran for an open Senate seat in 1996 that Mary Landrieu won by about 5,000 votes. After that, he retired in 1999 to run unsuccessfully for Commissioner of Elections (he also ran for Congress in 2008).

Jenkins’ 1999 retirement did not result in a contested seat, however; Republican Mike Futrell jumped in the race early and defeated a lone Democrat with a whopping 82% of the vote. Rep. Futrell was unopposed in 2003, but he resigned in late 2004 after newly elected U.S. Senator David Vitter chose him as his statewide director. Five Republicans and two Democrats sought the seat, but Democrats didn’t even come close to being competitive; their combined vote was only 8% in the primary. However, Democratic support did play a part in helping Republican attorney Hunter Greene defeat local conservative activist Sean Riecke 53-47%. While Greene ran well in all parts of the district, his victory margin was augmented by the 68% of the vote he received in the Democratic precincts between Florida and Choctaw.

Rep. Greene was unopposed in 2007 and helped elect several of his colleagues in open seat races in Baton Rouge that year. He also enhanced his stature by becoming chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. However, he attempted unsuccessfully to run for an open Family Court judgeship earlier this year. Though he was upset by 155 votes by another Republican, the precincts in his House district supported him 73-27%. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) He is allowed to serve one more term in the House, and was unopposed in 2011.

Proposed District

The rapidly changing demographics of the district (as evidenced by the narrow Landrieu victory here) could have created electoral headaches for the Republicans in an open seat situation. However, redistricting eliminated those headaches by pushing the district (which was 4% over populated) far to the south and southeast in East Baton Rouge Parish: in fact, only 15% of the existing voters stayed in District 66. The new district is shaped like a backwards “C.” It starts in Eastgate and includes Lake Sherwood Acres (Rep. Greene’s home). From there, it travels down Coursey Boulevard to pick up most of Shenandoah and White Oak Landing. It then travels south to pick up rapidly growing neighborhoods between Tiger Bend Road and Old Jefferson. Along the southern edge of East Baton Rouge Parish, the district now includes the high income neighborhoods of Santa Maria and Country Club of Louisiana. District 66 then travels further to the west to pick up a rapidly growing area along Bluebonnet between Burbank and Nicholson. These changes have significantly reduced the black voter registration from 31 to 13%, while simultaneously strengthening the Republican tendencies of the district to the point that Republicans can expect at least 70% support in contested elections. (UPDATED 9/9/2011) The only question is whether the rapid demographic changes that the district has seen over the past 40 years will continue in the new configuration of the district.