Decision 2015: JMCEL’s “bite sized politics” (Senate District 24)
INCUMBENT: Elbert Lee Guillory (Republican)
DESCRIPTION: Senate District 24 is located in Acadiana, and includes parts of three parishes. In Saint Landry Parish, it is centered on the city of Opelousas and areas to the north and south along I-49. In Lafayette Parish, it includes most of the parish north of downtown. It also includes three precincts in Saint Martin along Bayou Teche directly adjacent to the Lafayette Parish line.
DISTRICT MAP:
RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 63% Democratic
JMCEL’s SUMMARY: Though 1995 was the first year that Republicans made significant gains in both houses of the Legislature, the genesis of these gains was actually the 1991 reapportionment. That was the year that the U.S Justice Department exerted pressure during reapportionment to create new black majority districts in the Louisiana Legislature, and this had the effect of making the remaining districts whiter and (politically) more favorable to Republican candidates. One of the Senate districts affected by this change was Senate District 24.
In general, Senate District 24 (in its various incarnations since 1991) is a collection of black majority neighborhoods between Opelousas and Lafayette along I-49 and/or Bayou Teche. However, it is not a sizable majority (currently 56% of registered voters), and the white minority in the district means that there is a Republican voting bloc of 35-40% of the vote that has from time to time influenced the outcome of Senate races here.
That point is an important one when understanding elections here. From 1991 to 2009, this was a “family seat”: Donald Cravins Senior was the beneficiary of the reconfigured district lines, although it didn’t hurt that the same 1991 runoff where he defeated a white Democrat 59-41% was the same one that also had the Edwin Edwards/David Duke gubernatorial runoff on the ballot to boost black turnout. Senator Cravins Senior was ready for a new challenge a decade later, as he unsuccessfully ran for an open Congressional seat in 2004, but was successfully elected Mayor of Opelousas in 2006. In the special election to fill his seat, Donald Cravins Junior was elected without opposition and was easily re-elected in 2007, but he similarly had political ambitions, and after an unsuccessful Congressional campaign in 2008, he resigned his seat to become staff director for a Senate committee chaired by former Senator Mary Landrieu.
A special election was held in 2009 to fill the vacancy from the son’s resignation, and while the wife of the senior Cravins sought to keep the seat in the family, state representative Elbert Guillory defeated her 62-38% in the runoff, and in that race, Guillory split the black vote with Mrs Cravins and received an overwhelming 75% of the white vote. Redistricting made some minor changes to the district, although the black voting majority was reduced from 56 to 54%. Donald Cravins Senior sought his old seat back in 2011, but Sen. Guillory was again victorious with 56% of the vote in the runoff, again with the aid of a biracial coalition: he received just under 40% of the black vote and about 70% of the white vote. While Senator Guillory is allowed to seek one more term, he switched parties in 2013, and has decided to vacate his seat to run for Lt. Governor. A Democrat will almost certainly recapture this seat this fall, as Barack Obama received 61% of the district vote, and 62% voted for Mary Landrieu.