INCUMBENT: “Bret” Allain II (Republican)

DESCRIPTION: Senate District 21 is located in south Louisiana, and includes all of Saint Mary Parish, as well as parts of Iberia, western Terrebonne, and northern Lafourche Parishes.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 61% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: Senate District 21 is a district that, given its location in south Louisiana, is somewhat economically dependent on agriculture (particularly sugarcane farming), while at the same time, the influence of the oil industry is important here as well. Politically, this was once a swing district that would vote Republican in Presidential contests, while swinging back and forth in statewide contests, and the margin of support in those races was typically small. Recently, the politics of this district took a swing to the right thanks to the political fallout from the 2010 BP oil spill and the subsequent drilling moratorium issued by the Obama administration, which damaged the electoral viability of Democrats in the area.

In legislative races, this district once elected Democrats, and its last senator was “Butch” Gautreaux, who served here from 1999 (after serving in the House for a term) until he was term limited out in 2011. In the open seat election to succeed him, it was a notable sign of the changing politics of the district that has a 26% black voter registration and in 2008 gave Mary Landrieu a critical 50-48% win that no Democrat even bothered to file in this race. In fact, in this two Republican race, the 2011 race instead fell along geographic lines (Iberia/Saint Mary in the west and Terrebonne/Lafourche in the east). In that contest, Republican “Bret” Allain came from Saint Mary Parish and carried the “west” with 67% of the vote, while in the “east”, he only received 33% of the vote. But because 53% of the vote was cast in Iberia and Saint Mary Parishes, that was enough for Allain to eke out a 51% win. Senator Allain is allowed to seek two more terms, and should be in good shape electorally (Romney got 64% of the vote, while Cassidy received 61%), although the fact that half of the district vote is cast in Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes always creates the potential for a challenger to emerge from that region.