Decision 2015: JMCEL’s “bite sized politics” (House District 32)

INCUMBENT: Dorothy Sue Hill (Democrat)

DESCRIPTION: House District 32 is located in an area of the state between Lake Charles and Alexandria. It contains all of Allen Parish, the eastern and western fringes of Beauregard Parish, and the town in DeQuincy in northern Calcasieu Parish. This is a primarily rural district.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

District Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 71% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: House District 32 is a bellwether district that once had some affinity for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, but in recent years has swung sharply towards the Republicans. So while it provided crucial support for Kathleen Blanco and Mary Landrieu, it swung heavily towards David Vitter in 2010, giving him 68-25% support over his Democratic opponent. Then in 2014, Mary Landrieu saw the bottom fall out for her in districts like this: after carrying the district with 50% in 2002 and receiving 45% in 2008, she could only get 24% of the vote last year – only two percentage points above what Barack Obama received in his 2012 re-election. This swing towards the Republicans hasn’t yet occurred in legislative races, however, as this district tends to hold onto its incumbents for a very long time. From 1972 to 1992, (former) Democrat James David Cain held the seat until he ran for a vacant state senate seat and won in 1991. He was succeeded by Democrat Herman Ray Hill, who served from 1992 until 2008, when term limits forced him to retire. Since Senator Cain was similarly term limited, he sought his old House seat back, except that Rep. Hill’s wife (Democrat Dorothy Sue Hill) was running, and she defeated Cain in the runoff 51-49% – one of several crucial victories that kept Democrats in control of the House until 2011. Rep. Hill was unopposed in 2011, and is allowed to serve one more term. Given that the district has moved substantially to the right since her first election (Romney and Cassidy both got 76% of the vote), this is a district Republicans will most likely want to contest, as Mike Danahay (who represents Sulphur) is the only Democrat holding a more Republican district in the House.