INCUMBENT: Joe Harrison (Republican)

DESCRIPTION: House District 51 is a coastal district and includes part of four parishes: the southeast portion of Assumption Parish, a single precinct in northern Lafourche Parish, most of Morgan City in Saint Mary Parish, and most of the landmass of western Terrebonne Parish.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 62% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: Historically, south Louisiana districts like District 51 played a large part in keeping Democrats in power in state and local races, although there was an underlying appreciation for the oil industry, due to its economic influence in the area. More to the point, it has voted for the statewide winner in recent elections. It actually swung towards the Republicans in the 2007 election cycle, which was a full election cycle before the rest of South Louisiana showed more affection for Republican legslative candidates. The reason for this swing was probably due to the actions of its former two term Democratic incumbent Carla Dartez. Before the October 2007 primary, she was involved in a hit and run accident, and her husband was indicted for allegedly harboring illegal aliens. These allegations had some effect on the primary balloting, as Rep. Dartez only led 44-36% in the primary. But in the runoff, she fatally hurt her candidacy by referring to a local NAACP official as “Buckwheat.” The resulting uproar (some in the NAACP even urged voters to support her Republican opponent) undoubtedly contributed to her losing the runoff to Republican Joe Harrison 43-57%, with a particularly steep drop in black precincts: her vote among that demogrpahic fell from 56-23% in the primary to 53-47% in the runoff. Redistricting strengthened Rep. Harrison’s hand by removing Democratic and adding Republican precincts to the district, and these changes had an estimated 4% favorable impact. In fact, in the 2011 race, Rep. Harrison drew no Democratic opponent at all, and defeated an Independent candidate 72-28%. Rep. Harrison is allowed to serve one more term. While he is likely a safe bet for re-election, there are just enough Democrats in the district to make this a competitive race.