Decision 2015: JMCEL’s “bite sized politics” (House District 5)

INCUMBENT: Alan Seabaugh (Republican)

DESCRIPTION: House District 5 is in northwest Louisiana and includes the southernmost fringes of Caddo Parish along the Bert Kouns Industrial Loop on either side of I-49, which serves as a socioeconomic dividing line. In general, Shreveport’s newer and more affluent neighborhoods are east of I-49, while the neighborhoods west of I-49 are more middle income.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

District Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 67% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: Historically, District 5 has been one of the most Republican districts in the state. Not only did it cast over 85% of its votes for Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide, but this was one of the first House districts to have a Republican legislator. Since then, the district, while still decidedly Republican (Republicans can expect 65-70% support in elections now), has more of a Democratic base, due to racial changes in the precincts west of I-49. When the lines were last drawn in 2011, 20% of the registered voters were black; that number is now 24%. Despite the demographic changes, Republicans have held the seat since 1972. The current legislator is Republican Alan Seabaugh, who won the seat in an open seat election in 2010 when his predecessor resigned to take a state job. Since then, Rep. Seabaugh has not had any electoral problems in this decidedly Republican district: after his 57% victory in his initial (2010) special election race, he was re-elected with 79% in the 2011 statewide elections. He is allowed to serve two more terms, and should have little trouble with re-election, although the changing district demographics west of I-49 might invite a Democratic challenger in a future election cycle.