INCUMBENT: Mike Huval (Republican)

DESCRIPTION: House District 46 historically has been “the Saint Martin district”, although after the 2011 reapportionment, most of the black neighborhoods along Bayou Teche between Breaux Bridge and Saint Martinville were moved to a new black majority district that was created in the area. As those precincts were removed, some precincts in Iberia Parish in and around Loreauville were added, as was a section of southern Saint Landry Parish along Bayou Teche. While the majority of the district’s landmass is actually swampy terrain, most of its residents live close to Bayou Teche, and the district has seen some suburban migration from Lafayette as well.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 66% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: Saint Martin Parish, with its 30% black voter registration and its agricultural (primarily sugarcane) economy, was once staunchly Democratic territory, routinely voting Democratic in all (even Presidential) races. That began to change in the last decade, as a combination of (1) general movement away from the Democratic Party in Acadiana and rural Louisiana, and (2) suburbanization from Lafayette Parish gave this parish a Republican base for the first time. A key turning point was in the 2000 Presidential election between George W Bush and Al Gore, when Bush carried the parish by 108 votes. Since then, Saint Martin has been casting steadily higher percentages for the GOP Presidential nominee, to the point that Mitt Romney received 62% of the Saint Martin vote. These changes in the political complexion of the parish also happened in statewide races: a parish that routinely gave 2 and 3:1 margins to Democrats by 2010 gave David Vitter 57% of the vote against Democrat Charlie Melancon – especially impressive when you realize that Melancon was its congressman for the preceding six years – and 60% for Bill Cassidy in last year’s Senate race. Finally, the increasing Republican complexion of the parish became apparent in legislative elections when a district that never was previously competitive for Republicans suddenly became GOP territory when former legislator Fred Mills was elected in 2007 as a Democrat, but switched to the Republican Party to run for an open state senate seat in 2011. In the race to succeed him in April 2011, two Republicans (and, crucially, NO Democrats) sought election in a district where once Republicans had no chance of winning. The winner (with 58% of the vote) was Republican “Mike Pete” Huval, who was then unopposed in the regular 2011 statewide elections. Rep. Huval is allowed to serve two more terms, and his re-election worries (at least from a Democratic challenge) went away between his initial election and the fall of 2011, when the district was reconfigured during reapportionment, and the black voter registration dropped from about 30% to 20% today. In political terms, this means that 10 percentage points was added to the GOP base here, and with Mitt Romney getting 71% of the district vote (and Bill Cassidy getting 69%), Rep. Huval should be a safe bet for re-election.