INCUMBENT: Mike Danahay (Democrat)

DESCRIPTION: House District 33 is located in Calcasieu Parish and contains most of the territory “across the lake” from Lake Charles, and is a mixture of petrochemical plants, blue collar suburbs, and rural precincts.

DISTRICT MAP:

District Map

RED/BLUE RATING (using 2008, 2012, and 2014 elections): 73% Republican

JMCEL’s SUMMARY: A generation ago, Calcasieu Parish (which contains Lake Charles) was a union friendly parish that typically voted Democratic up and down the ballot – even in the 1984 Reagan landslide, he could only muster 52% support from Calcasieu, which has a relatively low black population. And District 33 was the epicenter of that “yellow dog Democratic” sentiment. Since then, Calcasieu Parish starting with the Bush vs. Gore race has moved steadily to the right, and District 33 has followed. In fact, in top of the ballot races, Republicans have gotten nearly 80% of the vote here; even when Mary Landrieu was re-elected in 2008, she could only get 43% of the vote here. This change in political preference, however, has not yet registered in this district, although its last legislator (Ronnie Johns) changed to the Republican Party in 2003, and was re-elected without opposition. The current legislator is Democrat Mike Danahay, who was elected in 2007, and has never – in 2007 or 2011 – faced an opponent. However, despite his party label, former representative (and current state senator) Johns noted on election night in 2007 that “I don’t think you’ll see an ounce of difference in our philosophies in both fiscal and social agendas.” Rep. Danahay is allowed to serve one more term. While he has not yet had to wage a campaign, the strong Republican sentiment (Cassidy and Romney both got nearly 80% of the vote here) present in the district now makes this a tempting target for Republicans. Certainly when the seat opens up in 2019, this will be a near certain Republican pickup.